Europe: Mild March Has Growing Season 5-6 Weeks Ahead Of 2013 / Latest CFSv2 Temps For Summer!

Written by on April 9, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

You probably don’t need to see the below map for confirmation that March across Europe was milder than normal.

However, this says it all. In fact, Ireland was near normal, UK slightly above but the real blowtorch was centred over eastern Europe.

Chart courtesy of Simon Cardy

Chart courtesy of Simon Cardy

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This is just another month which can be added to the rest of above to well above normal this winter. Note the two very different extremes on either side of the Atlantic.

Courtesy of NOAA

Courtesy of NOAA

As a result of the lack of cold, frost and snow, vegetation is showing. Sure there are trees that remain bare. I’m no flora and fauna expert but I know that there are trees around here who loose and gain greenery faster than others.

This is the scene from some of the trees down at the bottom of my road.

Bkwf8SZIQAAQOa2

The growing season this year is running about 5-6 weeks ahead of last year which of course was the coldest spring in the UK for 50 years. I remember pretty much all trees remaining bare into May.

Through the next week or so, the NAO goes positive and it looks as though the classic North America to Europe positive height signal shows it’s hand. In other words, high pressure should hold firm, especially over central and southern Britain down into mainland Europe from Denmark south and east. Always a threat of a nearby front spoiling things across Northern Ireland and Scotland.

nao_sprd2

The GFS shows the belt of positive heights extending from the Eastern United States across the central North Atlantic into the UK but notice the below normal heights are never far away from Scotland.

48 hrs

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

96 hrs

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

126 hrs

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

By 168 it looks like the GFS has more of a negative NAO signal with Atlantic ridge/W Europe trough.

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Though ridging should hold near to the UK in the 7-day mean, we could see fronts sweep into the Northern UK next week which could bring wind, rain and colder air but these setups usually see significant weakening of wind/rain bearing fronts as they push into an area of stronger than normal heights and so the further into England you go, the less impacting these fronts will be. Looking largely high and dry along with warmer than normal really from France up through the Low Countries into Denmark.

Here’s the CFSv2 temp anomalies May through August. Like the Jamstec, it appears to be going for warm but interestingly cool in southern Europe/Med basin.

May

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

June

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

July

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

August

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

Source/credit: meteociel.fr

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