EXPERT DISCUSSION: Hardest Hit Areas Of UK & Ireland Face Late Week Snow Threat

Written by Mark Vogan on February 26, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Just when you thought winter was a no show this year, the models bring hope… It may well warm the hearts of southern UK, E, SE Ireland snow lovers late this week as a low slides in from the WSW and is likely to bring snow, yes snow! Woohoo!

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I was eyeing this particular feature a couple of days ago and to be totally honest, was looking a little too much at the longer term pattern to really see the potential from this thing.

With enough cold air through the lowest mile of the atmosphere indicated by the models and moisture wrapping around the low, the stage looks conducive for a late season southern UK, ESE Ireland snow event.

The ECMWF is slow initially as the low moves in across southern Ireland into southern Britain but the models shows the low winding with moisture intensifying, whereas the GFS is quicker at bringing the snow.

Here’s the ECMWF.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Cool enough 850 temps.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Note by 90 hrs, as the low winds up with pressure dropping to 984, moisture increases and as this happens, so the column beneath cools!

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Column is seen cooling as low winds up, moisture increases.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS at 51 hrs.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

As stated, the ECMWF is unimpressive initially with snow accumulation while the GFS has a quick hitting and widespread inch over southern Ireland and Britain. My take is that we have a blend of the two with hills the place to be for possibly a few inches.

Here’s the unimpressive ECMWF through 12z Friday.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Different story though out at 96 hrs (0z Sun)

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS through 51 hrs (9z Fri)

Source: AccuWeather Pro

By Monday, the GFS has that snow producer absorbed and kicked out by the next Atlantic front associated with a low near Iceland. Note the well organised low over the central Med! Big rain producer.