The most recent monster Atlantic storm has been responsible for causing a lot of damage to coastal Ireland and the UK with it’s massive swells caused by long fetch WSW gales which have ‘built up’ the spell as it approached shores. Huge waves slamming sea waves have been known to kick up spray towering over 100 feet.
Check out this incredible image from South Wales via the Daily Mail.
Astonishing: People photograph enormous waves as they break on Porthcawl, South Wales, where very strong winds and high seas create dangerous conditions
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534511/UK-weather-50ft-waves-hit-coast-1-6inches-rain-fall-sodden-ground-today.html#ixzz2peK5ECkP
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Despite the latest round of damage and disruption, we have a well earned change coming in the not so distant future with a relaxation of the wild weather Britain and Ireland has been suffering over the past 5 weeks. That will stems from the other side of the Atlantic and over North America which holds the key for this significant change that looms.
Right now, we’re seeing a substantial chunk of the polar vortex (a semi permanent low which spins between the pole and Hudson Bay) breaking off and diving into the Lower 48, producing the strongest arctic outbreak in 20 years. The polar vortex which bobbles between the pole and Hudson Bay has been gradually sinking south thanks to warming over Siberia in recent weeks and with a cross polar flow connecting Russian and Canadian air and forcing it south into the US. If you were to look at a surface temperature chart over the northern hemisphere, a river of extremely cold air would be visible from the heart of Russia extending over top of the pole and down into the United States. This set up has Europe mild with all the cold on the other side of the world at the moment but that’s about to change.
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Change comes later this week and into next when that surge of arctic air sweeps south (now) and then swings east out into the Atlantic (late week and the weekend). As this occurs, this re-routes the cold air over the hemisphere and as a blocking high builds north from the central Atlantic up into the Norwegian and Arctic Sea, so a tongue of arctic air dives into eastern Europe while it warms up in a huge way over North America.
You can see how this unfolds with the latest ECMWF 850mb temperature charts…
Check out the initial chart and notice the motherlode of cold over the US while there’s very little cold at all over Europe.
24 hrs
As that vortex pulls back and out, so arctic air starts to decent into Europe from Russia.
120 hrs
By 192 hrs, Europe is much colder but the UK is a more settled but also more wintry regime.
240 hrs
While North America warms, the baroclinic thermal gradient over both the continent and the Atlantic weakens and so too does the storm bearing jet stream, it will get forced south, then possibly north of the UK next week while Europe turns much colder. High pressure near the Azores can be seen on the models which make it tough to gage the exact westwards extent of the cold right now but it’s too far out to know for sure whether the cold will be stopped from reaching as far west as Ireland.
There’s a good deal of uncertainly as to whether the jet will be north or south of the UK next week and depending upon the position, will depend upon whether it’s mild or cold. What is interesting however, is the change overall. Up till now we’ve simply be bombarded by one storm after the other but we’re going to see large scale height rises west and north of the UK over the next 5-7 days and that should take us into a very different upcoming 20-30 day period.
Check out the below 192 hr ECMWF surface charts which show a 1036mb high over Scandinavia which initially helps pull arctic air into Europe, then it builds southwest.
192 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
204 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
240 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Lot’s of back and forth with the models in the coming days but the there’s a firm trend to colder.
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Does that mean we will not be cold here in South West Ireland I do hope so have had enough of storms and rain just want to see spring and get planting and painting!!
Yes, you people on the British Isles have certainly taken a lot of battering from the storm of the Atlantic lately. How early can you expect spring in Ireland? When I was in Co. Kerry back in February 2008 it wasn’t exactly winter, but it wasn’t spring either. I did have two good weeks of relatively dry and calm weather, though. I was told that was quite lucky with the weather considering the more normal condition with rain and wind. The week after I left they had a powerful storm in Dingle, by the way. Ahhh, Southwest Ireland. I fell in immediately in love with the country and the people. You can be proud of your country! 🙂
To get back on topic, we usually can’t expect spring here in Denmark before March when spring comes early. In cold winters we often have to wait untill some time in April. Luckily I love snow and cold weather, but when we come to late March or early April, I start longing for spring and warmer weather.
lets hope we get a strong block developing bring on the snow!!
Now this is what I’ve been waiting for! Let it come, I say! 🙂