A lot can be said for the bitter cold shivering North America while Britain suffers it’s worst spell of storminess since the 1800s, is there a link? Yes. Blame the vast thermal gradient over North America for sending a 190-230 mph jet stream across the Atlantic and with a ridge bringing mild to much of Europe, this has forced all that trans Atlantic energy to pile up just ahead of Ireland, driving central pressure within these rapidly deepening lows to depths not seen since 1886.
The sprawling wind field of this latest Atlantic storm with it’s long fetch of WSW gales stretching across most of the Atlantic into Ireland is generating 60ft waves at sea and 42ft waves up against the Irish coast as seen in these wave height charts, Jesse Ferrell posted on facebook earlier.
Courtesy of Jesse Ferrell/AccuWeather Pro
Interestingly, December was stormiest in UK history and wettest in Scotland since records began. As well as that and what probably stood out most was the fact that Wales saw it’s wettest December since 1994 while the US is about to endure it’s worst arctic outbreak since… 1994.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Without any real Greenland block, that super deep trough diving Georgia bound over the next 36 hours, will strike sending temperatures towards the coldest levels since 1985 in Atlanta but won’t stick around, it heads out into the Atlantic by Wednesday. While that happens, North America significantly, albeit briefly, WARMS. Up till now, the focus of cold over the hemisphere has been over North America, opposite to winter 2011-12 when the focus of cold was over Europe but I suspect that as North America warms, Europe will turn considerably colder and as this happens, the building of heights will take place north and west of the UK, thus shutting down the Atlantic storm train.
The Arctic Oscillation has went negative and although the GFS brings it back positive for a time, if that occurs, it’s brief as blocking remains on the models to progress further, covering a large chuink of the arctic ocean as well as down over Greenland in the next couple of weeks which should force building cold over Europe westwards towards the UK.
The CFSv2 500mb heights continue showing the northern blocking and this extends south over Greenland but remember that the SST’s near and around the UK have cooled with the ribbon of cold water extending from Nflnd to Ireland with warmest waters north and northwest of the UK, that means the block positions itself west and north, not over the UK, so the cold that gains more and more ground over Europe, handed off by North America, should reach the UK and Ireland.
Here’s the latest ECMWF 850mb chart showing the brutal decent of the polar vortex into the Lower 48 but it’s clear to see that it exits and heads east towards the UK while another tongue of cold slides out of the pole into northeast Europe. As this cold deepens the Europe trough, ridging over top should mean the cold eventually reaches the UK.
48 hrs
96 hrs
144 hrs
SEE THE VIDEO DONE EARLIER WHICH LOOKS AT THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN MORE DETAIL.
[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]
That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!
To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
Sign in to read the full forecast…
Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access
Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]
Recent Comments