Looks like it topped out at around 30C this afternoon in Hurn, Dorset and Heathrow Airport, 24 to 26C across Central Scotland, 28C in Cardiff and around 24 to 26C over parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic. There is plenty more heat to come tomorrow after a balmy night which may be a touch uncomfortable for sleeping.
Get use to it because nights throughout this week look warm and should become warmer. While the ridge builds overhead, tomorrow will see fog, low cloud push onto North Sea coasts and so here, it’s a touch cooler than today but it’s another warm day inland with the core of heat shifting a touch west into central and western parts of the UK. The Republic and Northern Ireland as well as Scotland should be warmer tomorrow at 27, possibly even 28C. Somewhere in the west Midlands and SE Wales may push 30C. Cloudier and therefore cooler in the far North of Scotland thanks to a weak front which ultimately marks the northern periphery of the ridge that’s dominating our air space but even for Inverness, it should get up to 25C in the sunshine.
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A slight change arrives Tuesday into Wednesday as the ridge core shifts a touch to the northwest, allowing a weak boundary to drop down the eastern side of the UK. This will increase cloud particularly in the east and shifts the warmest air further west. Drizzle is about all we’ll get from this and by Thursday and into next weekend, the ridge rebuilds, pushing that boundary away and with heights rising and the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere warming again, expect low cloud and warmer temperatures. Next weekend should be a near repeat of this weekend, although it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a touch warmer.
Overnight temperatures with this type of air mass is one which cools VERY slowly and so even by midnight, several inland towns and cities which warmed to between 25-30C during the day, could hold in the mid to low 20s till midnight, cooling to only 20-21C by daybreak. That warmth means a warmer following day to come for some and we’ll see that tomorrow across Central England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland.
No substantial end is in sight through the next 7 days with the warm, settled conditions likely to extend into potentially the following week. The ECMWF is hinting at change for Scotland though with a front dropping down, bringing some rain and cooler conditions but exactly how much influence this would have and how far south it gets over Scotland remains to be seen. It could still stay north of the Central Lowlands and therefore Glasgow to Edinburgh on south may remain in the warm sunshine, especially further south well into the week commencing the 15th.
No rain for many over the next 10 days!
As for T in the Park next weekend at Balado in Kinross-shire, expect warm or very warm sunshine and not the washout we saw there last year.
The ‘Best July Weather Since 2006’ Was First Mentioned In April Here!
Here’s a piece from an article I wrote back on June 21 which made mention of this upcoming July potentially being the best since the scorcher of July 2006. This was before all the media hype began about this ‘heatwave’ and everybody started to claim victory that they called this first.
“Our atmosphere has a tendency to go from one extreme to the other. In the United States for example, we saw exceptional drought in the Midwest last year which produced a very hot summer, this year it turned the other way and is too wet and is likely to produce a cooler than normal summer. Although I’m not screaming drought, I wonder whether we could go from exceptional wet last year to drier than normal this year during the heart and second half of summer. After all I am going for a drier, warmer July and August. The colder, drier spring and the neutral ENSO will likely shift things around this summer, bringing us the best UK-wide July potentially since 2006”
I don’t want you to think I’m bumming about what a great forecast this is but more showing you the justification and positive results in the hard study that has been carried out. Hundreds of hours has been put in to produce this summer’s forecast. Many are quick to shout about ‘I called it first’ when really a lot of the time, they wait till the model shows an upcoming weather situation, then they start to ‘forecast’.
Here’s a tweet I put up earlier today.
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