A few folks out there are beginning to jump on the GFS with a hint of real warmth around July 6-10th and thought Id take a closer look myself. I indeed have been watching the longer range models but have held off until I’ve been more certain as I would rather deliver a forecast that I am committed and the overall setup supports the model solution. As your well aware, I’m not a fan of constantly watching model runs and basing forecasts purely on models, simply because they jump too much. I like to deliver an idea or theory as to what I believe will happen further down the road and then watch for the model to go towards that idea. Sometimes you get it right and partially right and other times it’s a bust.

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For a solid 1-2 months now, I’ve be showing you why July should be the best in several years, perhaps 2006 when we last saw a UK-wide spell of warmth and sunshine. The past 2 months of weather across not only the UK and Europe but globally has been closely monitored and I like what I’m seeing for a greater possibility of a warmer, drier July and perhaps August too. Does that mean it’s a definite, no of course not but the hard work has been put in and I remain happy with my original ideas.

July 2005 was largely warm and dry across the UK as you can see from the below charts courtesy of the Met Office. Why do I keep mentioning 2005 you may ask? There’s a LOT of similarities to the 2005 pattern with this year so far.

Rainfall

Temperature

The cool, wet spring, low tornado season and the now heatwave building over the Western US is all very like 2005. The heat of July ’05 looks set to be repeated in the same areas. Look at the numbers in July 2005 with this upcoming heatwave in Las Vegas. Like, 2005, the Eastern US was cool to warm but significantly tempered by very wet conditions.

As for here in the UK, the repeated warmth which keeps trying to come back is also similar to late June 2005. Spring of 2005 was dry but it was also warm whereas this year was cold but dry.

Let’s take a look at SST’s currently compared to this time back in 2005.

June 27, ’13

Notice waters very cold from the UK down towards Canaries. Thank the cold spring but this may help promote higher pressure this July.

June 28, ’05

Notice the very warm waters by this point in June ’05, thanks to the opposite, a very warm spring and although you may ask, this year is nothing like 2005 in terms of water temps. Keep in mind that the equation was different in 2005 compared to this year. While there’s a well established cold PDO now, in 2005 it was a warm PDO. From my own understanding, a warm temperature anomaly surrounding the UK with a warm PDO, can support warmer and drier weather over the UK but cold surrounding waters with a cold PDO in a warm AMO can also lead to warmer and drier.

The ENSO index changes things again. While it’s largely neutral at the moment, at this time last year, we not only had very warm waters surrounding the UK but there was a weak El Nino. A cold PDO, warm AMO with very warm waters surrounding the UK, promotes lower pressure and those lows which cross, also collect a lot more moisture when there’s a lot of warm water.

So, despite a rather unsettled UK overall with the focus on the North in the coming days with some decent warmth to the south of the fronts which may push temps into the mid-20s in coming days, do we have a significant spell of summer warmth coming up?

Both ECMWF and GFS are hinting at a strong ridge around the 6-10th and it’s this which could be near HOT conditions. Even between now and then I believe we shall see plenty of warmth with high pressure never far away. Systems will clip the north, bringing spells of wet weather to Northern Ireland Scotland but I suspect heights build north as we enter July.

The 240 hr ECMWF

The GFS for the same 240 hr period shows very similar. Note the 588dc heights! That’s a strong ridge, folks!

If I’m being honest, this is what I’ve been looking for and would have been rather nervous, given what I’m been saying, if these models weren’t hinting at this. Remember I am going bold with more sun and warmth than cool and wet along with a chance of some major warmth during the month too.

I want to keep reminding you though that we live in the UK and there will be spells of wet and cool but they should be short lived with the next surge of warmth always visible on the charts.

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