Western Heat, Eastern Cool, Stormy Plains, Latest On Tropics

Written by Mark Vogan on June 5, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

vis-l There’s no shortage of convection over the Gulf but the only trouble is the developing low helping fuel the storminess and spreading plenty of moisture north into Florida is well off to the west, just off Cancun, due to a lot of dry air covering much of the Gulf and strong northwesterly shear. The below water vapour image shows a lot of dry air which is being blow from the Southwest and Texas out over the open waters but as ridging begins to build over the Southern Plains which shall kick the trough to east, the dry air should become less extensive as shear decreases. The improving overall environment will provide a fairly short window of opportunity for this system to try and develop Wednesday-Thursday before the models take the circulation up towards the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into Friday. wv-l As always stated, no matter whether this system gets a name or not, this thing will and is already increasing the flood threat over Florida. While central and northern Florida remains fairly dry, South Florida is becoming increasingly wet thanks to heavy, persistent rainstorms over recent weeks. An additional 4-8 inches of rain is likely from Fort Myers up to Tampa. The latest QPF now shows more significant rain totals up the eastern coastal plain with potentially 3-6 inches across the eastern Carolinas and up over the Northeast we may see quite the soaking. The models may be trying to connect the eastbound front and the tropical moisture. If there’s a connection, then flooding is a given, especially over the flatter terrain nearer the coast. p168i [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Here’s is the latest model spread showing where this system is heading and right now their in good agreement that this thing is wanting to head up into the FL Panhandle and with the heaviest precipitation mainly right of the centre, then we could see several inches between Orlando and Tallahassee. late week as the system comes ashore. 590x442_06041510_combo_atl_1 As it stands, I don’t see this thing much more than a weak storm but it may even become a hybrid, part warm core, part cold core with gales and all the weather mainly on one side. However stranger things have happened and let this thing get into a more relaxed environment over those 80 degree waters and you never know. As for the Lower 48, well there’s no shortage of heat Out West. In fact the heat builds through this week over Phoenix and Las Vegas where both should see a few days above 110. There is a little less severity in the Southwestern ridge compared to what the ECMWF had yesterday as a low which pops up off the SOCAL coast trims heights. So rather than 115, 116 in Phoenix this weekend, it may be nearer 113, yep still HOT! The model is also showing that upper low pushing into California which pushes the heat east into the Plains. That appears to deep the eastern trough, driving plenty of cool air out of Canada potentiall all the way towards the Southeast as well as eastwards. This setup looks very likely to be persistent one through much of June. Here’s the latest ECMWF through next week. Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_48 Sat 8th Mon 10 Wed 12th Check out that trough sliding into the West Coast, this should ease the heat temporarily over the Southwest and West allowing the Plains states to boil but in turn the trough really drops down over the East and this could keep things cool with very comfortable humidity levels all the way into Georgia and the Carolinas for a few days. The storminess over the next few days will continue over the Southern and Central Plains with little break for Oklahoma where it seems every night there are strong storms dropping large amounts of rain, prolific lightning displays, hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The pattern should ease down later this week as the heat pushes east and the dynamics are lost as the atmosphere caps. [/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

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