Significant Spain To Scandinavia Warmth Next Week, Another Look At May & June

Written by on April 30, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments


Modeling is becoming adament about next week’s warm surge and I am feeling more confident this evening that while we’ve seen highs reach 23C in the UK so far, next week should push the 25C mark with Scotland, Denmark and even southern Scandinavia joining the 21C club for the first time this year. Like here in Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Rebublic.. Norway, Sweden and Finland have yet to see any real warmth (21C+) but next week looks highly possible to break the cool spring pattern.Until we get that Iberian heat pump, another frontal system will push south over the UK tonight through tomorrow but ahead of the front, beneath sunshine and light winds, temperatures should warm towards 17-18C tomorrow in Southern England and even behind the front, with sunshine, it should warm to 13C in central Scotland.  [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The unsettled theme continues into the upcoming weekend but it’s through Sunday into Monday that we begin to see the ridge build north. After the unseasonable chill and biggest late April snow since 1995 over northern and central Spain, warmth returns this weekend and builds into early next week. This warmth will extend up through France, the UK (including Scotland), all the way across the Baltic Sea into southern Norway, Sweden and Finland. The heat looks to spread across France, the Low Countries into Germany also.Ireland and Northern Ireland is a tough call right now but I am optimistic that here too, the warmth will prevail.

As it stands with current models, expect a warming trend to commence Monday with a peaking of the warmth all the way to Scandinavia late next week.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart for next week.











As for the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast for May, it remains cooler and drier than normal overall. June also remains below normal and interestingly, July is now below normal also..



I’ve stated the importance of spring rainfall and we have seen some decent rains of late across a broad area of the UK and Ireland as well as down over France and Iberia. We’re entering a crucial period in the spring and I stand by my idea that May and June will be drier and therefore we should see a better chance of more heat and drier weather into summer. The CFSv2 supports a drier but also cooler May and June.




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