Milder air will arrive as early as THIS weekend as winds fall much lighter than of late and with plenty of strong sunshine, temperatures should rise to between 8-11C. Although it’s still a little below average it’s an improvement at least.
As for next week, we will gradually emerge from the fridge as high pressure sinks southeast into Europe allowing an Atlantic low to swing a boundary across Ireland and the UK. Monday-Tuesday will see a suttle drop in temperature again but as a moisture laden front swings through by later Tuesday into Wednesday bringing windier, wetter conditions to all, the air behind the front will be FINALLY be milder.
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I’ve stated since mid March that the cold would linger into week 2 of April but look out mid-month for a potential arrival of spring with a trough deepening and dropping south from Greenland, which tele-connects with a ridge to it’s east, pumping warmer air up from the Azores and Iberia into the UK and Ireland. My evidence to back up this long standing hunch of a mid-month warm-up was this..
Next week will be all about the recovery to a much more typical UK weather pattern with the Atlantic door opened up once again but as we head into next weekend, the AO should be back into positive territory and although the NAO appears to be slower in reaching neutral, the ECMWF model is hinting at a ridge building over the UK and Ireland by 216 hours.
Check this out.
Look at the date! April 14. Right around the time I stated the ‘potential’ for our first ‘warm spell’. This could very well change in coming days but the support of this having merit is in the flip of the NAO/AO. We may also want to factor in the fairly dry soils over particularly central and northern parts. A ridge and surge of warm air will get enhanced by drier conditions over the UK.
Here’s Mon 15th
While there’s been an excellent teleconnection with this cold pattern between eastern North America and Europe with snows falling in the Mid-Atlantic while it was snowing in Southeast England also, later next week may see a nice teleconnection in a warm version with a ridge and warm surge over the eastern US, big trough over the North Atlantic and a ridge pumping warm air from the Azores and Iberia up into the UK.
If this scenario materialised, we may see 16-19C over Scotland, maybe the first 20C in the South.
Time will tell.
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Cheers, Michael.
Yes, I agree with you in terms of the wish for warmer weather. I like you love cold and snow but enough is enough and we’re ready for warmer weather.
First, congratulations on your very spot on winter forecast, Mark. It was quite accurate in my opinion. Second, I hope you are right about the warmer weather arriving in not that long. It seems the cold just goes on and on – the winter won’t really stop. And though I love cold and snow I think it’s time for spring now. Here in my region of Denmark we have had frost in the night for 38 nights in a row now. It’s very unusual. And we have also had an incredibly amount of sunshine that is almost unprecedented for as long as I can remember back in time. A looong period of solid high pressure over Scandinavia with easterly winds is to thank for that. But I believe and hope you are right about the warmer weather arriving soon. The high over Russia won’t last for much longer with the russian continent warming up soon. Keep up the good work!