Many folks living in the eastern third of the US will be asking, when will this persistent, nagging, lingering cold actually break and the calender match the pattern? Like I stated in my UK post earlier, until the very deep negative NAO/AO bounces back towards at least neutral, the cold and indeed stormy pattern will continue and I don’t see any appreciable warmth till likely the second week of April, yes, the SECOND week. This is in the starkest contrast to this time last year when the US went from one of it’s mildest winter’s straight into summer during March. This year spring is VERY late with snow and unusual cold likely well into week 1 of April.

Although the NAO and even the AO will be trending UP from now on, the index is so deeply into the tank that recovery in temperature will be slow and so with the block over the North Atlantic and across the pole holding strong, this will keep the eastern trough and continued feed of cold arctic air going. This pattern may support record late season cold and snows. However, like with my UK idea for April, this pattern may flip fast during the mid-month and all of a sudden, it’s summer.

The southern branch jet stream has been very active and influential in merging with northern branch energy and persistent injections of arctic air fed down from Canada. This convergence between southern and northern branch has produced countless major snowstorms and blizzards from the Plains to New England, particularly from February 1st on. While winter lingers into April this year, we may start to see the work of seasonal transition with a focus more on the northern branch as warmer air begins to build over Mexico and the Southern states. What this may mean is a warming across the southern states but continued cold across the north and east with a collision in between. Don’t be surprised to see a couple of freakish late snows as far south as the Tennessee Valley with some wild swings between 80-85 degree weather one day, snow and cold the next. In saying that the South is sure to begin seeing lesser visits of arctic air all the way into the Deep South and Florida.

Currently, it’s unusually cold all the way to Georgia and Alabama with highs throughout the Mid-South and Southeast running 10 to 20 degrees below normal every day this week. Snow is making it all the way into northern Alabama and Georgia.

This graphic from AccuWeather explains the current pattern very well.

Very briefly, I want to show you the very latest run of the long range Jamstec model for both precip and surface temps through the rest of spring.

Temps

The Jamstec did well at both predicting the warm winter last year and the cold second half to winter this year. Certainly if this is correct them, once this cold start to spring snaps, summer should come in full bore, probably during the second half of April like I think it will for the UK.

Precip

Notice it shows dry for the central, southern plains on west to California. No surprise there given the dry start to the year. Wet from the Dakotas into Ohio and Tennessee Valley and parts of the mid-south.

Quiet Severe Season To Continue?

As for the severe weather season, well because it’s been so cold so far, it’s been a slow start to the severe season with the jet supressed well to the south. March may go into the history books as one of the quietest and one of the slowest starts to a season. While I think this year’s severe season will be far quieter than normal overall, it’s sure to liven up as we begin to see warmer weather take hold but a factor which should keep things down this year is the cooler Gulf of Mexico waters thanks to persistent cold making it all the way to the Gulf Coast. These cooler waters mean a little less juice being transfered north and the tropical dew points may not be quiet as juiocy even once the warmth builds and manages to kick out the cold during the mid and later stages of April.

So, what about the weather for the rest of this week?

A disturbance will be tracking eastbound across the country late week and this looks to pull both warmth and moisture north into the Southern Plains and Mid-South extending into the Southeast, potentially bringing a new round of thunderstorms with a few inches of rain possible from Texas up into Oklahoma and across to Louisiana, Mississippi into Alabama. Below is the latest QPF for rainfall over the next 5-7 days and notice there’s lots of moisture overall for the East and South but look at where the focus of this moisture lies.

While California looks to see a soggy Easter along with the South, the sun looks to prevail in the East but beyond this Easter weekend, another shot of unusually cold, arctic air will be diving into the Northern Tier. Check out the latest ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps for Monday and Tuesday next week.

Mon

Tue

Potential perhaps for some record cold highs and lows for early April next week from the Dakotas to Mid-Atlantic?

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]