Siberian Cold Flow To Continue Into UK & Ireland, Disruptive Easter Snow Unlikely!

Written by on March 26, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As posted last night, the Easter snow chances have significantly diminished across the UK and indeed Ireland and it’s now looking like a cold but largely dry upcoming weekend. In saying that, snow showers can’t be ruled out but any significant ‘system snow’ is highly unlikely now as it stays well west and south as pressures will stay too strong with a continued mid and upper flow blowing into the UK from the east, feeding the cold air in from eastern Europe.

The very cold, dry continent air flow streaming all the way from a still-bitterly cold, unusually cold Russia continues to bring a mid-winter shiver right across Europe. There are hardships not only here in the UK from recent snows and blizzards but across eastern parts, heavy snow and bitterly cold winds have likewise brought misery to the other side of the continent.

With both NAO/AO holding deeply negative and medium range models suggesting no real let up with this pattern, I would advise to you to expect this pattern to remain all the way into the SECOND week of April before any real let up. As i’ve said many times now, until both indexes spike back towards neutral, don’t expect even the return to ‘normal temps’ and for true spring to arrive, I would be looking for those to spike into positive territory.

According to the GFS, here is the current snowcover across Europe, note that ‘whites’ may now be bare ground but certainly where there is blue, snow likely remains on the ground.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Cold Hangs On But Winds Lighten In Coming Days

So, for the remainder of this week, expect days to provide a mix of sun and cloud with a chance of snow showers blowing into eastern parts of the UK and Ireland. Staying cold, especially where cloudy, breezy and where snow lies. However winds at least at the surface are and will continue to ease down, easing the ‘bitterness’ of this air mass. However the slackening of the wind presents a chance of increasingly colder nights. Tonight for example should be a lot colder than recent nights in spots with lighter winds, clearer skies and with the help of snow cover, we may see -10C somewhere. Even without snow, if clear and winds are light, the air is cold and dry enough to support -3 or -4C in towns and cities, -6 to -8C in rural areas..

Here is the latest GFS 850mb or 5,000ft level winds and notice the belt of stronger winds extending from Russia and racing westwards across the continent and into the UK and Ireland. These types of major blocking patterns pretty much reverse the normal upper flow and this allows the UK the temporarily get a taste of the more extreme continental climate. Our air is abnormally dry , since it’s origins come from the heart of a continent, hundreds if not thousands of miles from any warm water source.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

April To Start Abnormally Cold But May End Warmer Than Normal

The good news however is that I believe we get a sharp flip mid-April and while the month starts off very cold, maybe even record cold, it may end abnormally warm. These types of ‘extreme blocking patterns’ have a habit of flipping sharply and given the fact we’re entering April and the sun is rather strong now, once the cold air gets kicked out, the warmth may come in fast and with our bodies becoming use to the January-level cold, a sudden burst of warmth could be quite the shock to us all and nature too! That being said, it may take quite sometime to get anywhere close to spring and an additional 2 weeks of colder than normal looks likely. Further snowfall is likely into the first week of April with disruption possible in areas, especially when Atlantic weather tries to push in.

So, while my April idea suggests a turnaround from the cold start to potentially a mild or warm finish (those thoughts are BEFORE i’ve looked at any long range model), let’s see what the latest long range charts show for the rest of spring?

Here’s the latest Jamstec.

Interesting it’s going for a very warm spring according to it’s surface temps, so could this have the same idea about a sharp turn in April with a warm May to follow? Given the cold March and start to April that’s coming, for this to varify, it would certainly need to be a very mild second period.

Courtesy of Jamstec

Courtesy of Jamstec

Here’s the precip forecast and notice it has below normal rain for the central and southern UK as well as the western and southern mainland of Europe, perhaps normal or above in Scotland.

Courtesy of Jamstec

Courtesy of Jamstec

A reminder, our clocks ‘spring forward’ this Sunday to British summertime!

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