+NAO Brings Extreme Cold To Greenland, Welcome Relief From Rain Over UK.. January Ideas (Includes Video!)

Written by on January 1, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment
Courtesy of Mark Vogan

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a very happy New Year and may 2013 be a great one for all of you.

There is of course many across the UK and even parts of Ireland who will want to forget about the past year, those who had to deal with flooding and may even have lost everything. It has been a dreadful year for flooding rains and in fact 2012 was the wettest on record England. When all the data is compiled, the UK may also have seen the wettest year on record too. For Wales, 2012 was in the top 5 for wettest years, not quite sure about Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic but it has been a soaker.

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In a tweet I saw by someone, it read that 2012 ranked 4th coldest in Glasgow, 6th coldest in Aberdeen and joint 6th coldest for Cardiff and 7th for London. Thought this was interesting and a lot of that is thanks to lower than normal heights over the UK in the past 6-7 months with the jet further south than normal, positioned in the means across the English Channel during summer and of course we can’t forget all that cloud cover which blocks out sunshine and the rain which helps cool the air.

UK_News_4-1_jpg_678272tMany of us have probably forgotten how 2012 started off, extremely dry following two back to back dry winters. I have explained in previous posts why I think this mighty turnaround occurred and also why I believe our longer term (multi-year) weather pattern has become so much wetter. By analysing our weather pattern over recent years, I noticed a sharp change in 2007.

2006 was our last proper summer with real warmth and settled conditions. In 2007, we experienced a record wet summer up until summer 2012 when it washed away 2007 to become our wettest summer in over 100 years.

Big Pattern Reversal To Start 2013

Amazingly, as we end a year on a wet note and potentially bringing just enough added rain right at the close of December to even break a UK rainfall record, we start 2013 with a refreshingly drier and brighter pattern. All models agree that heights will significantly build from the Azores over the next 5-7 days and this will finally lift the storm track north of Scotland.

While more rain and breezy conditions will affect Scotland over the coming days, the bulk of the UK flood zone will see welcome sunshine and drier weather. This ridge pattern during the first half of January won’t promote cold weather but while many of us want cold and snow, this setup is very much needed and welcome and will be the first time in quite a while where river levels will drop back as fields which have been flooded for weeks if not months, should hopefully get some time to dry out.

Below is the latest ECMWF pressure pattern over the next few days.

Thurs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Sat

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

The ridge will continue to feed milder air northwards over the UK and Ireland into early next week, so this much drier, brighter and milder pattern is here for the foreseeable future.

While there’s a ridge over western Europe, a trough will reside in the east, keeping eastern parts cold and snowy.

I’m Optimistic That A Colder Pattern Will Return

Like I’ve said in recent posts, I am optimistic that January won’t end up being a warm month but certainly through the first 15 days it looks unlikely that we’re going to see much in the way of cold.

The NAO is positive and for a time, so too will the AO. The  positive NAO is very evidently positive when you look at the current pattern with a deep and brutal trough firmly positioned over Greenland supporting temperatures of around -60C, this trough leads to ridging further east and we will see that ridge as a consequence of the Greenland trough, this week and next here over the UK.

Below is a livecam from Summit Camp, located high on top over the interior Greenland Icecap. The scientists who work here, live in a true frozen landscape.

Here’s the very latest view of the station, it’s 10.18am and the sun is not long up. Daytime up here is minimal and only last a few short hours.

webcam

Now that’s a rather frozen looking landscape right? The current temperature is a bone-chilling -59C or -74F and let me just say that the temperature over recent days has not managed to climb above -56C or -68F, according to the weather charts provided by the website, it looks like the temperature may have crept down as low as -61C or -77F. These temperatures aren’t unusual during positive NAO’s when a trough sets up over this vast icecap and an frigid arctic high builds overhead. The coldest ever recorded temperature in Greenland was -66C or -87F. A reading as low as this occurred in couple of winter’s ago.

While very cold now, when the NAO flips negative, so we see a reversal of the upper level pattern over Greenland with warming and height rises which shift the core of cold away from the heart of Greenland. As heights rise over Greenland, so they fall over the UK and eastern North America, this of course very much depends upon the position of that upper level ridge but with the right setup, while a ridge builds over Greenland with surface temperatures dramatically warming to -18C or 0F, so a trough drops down over the UK bringing colder weather.

So, what makes me believe the pattern will turn colder over the UK by mid-January. Well here is my evidence.

The Stratosphere Is Warming Where We Want It To Warm!

Remember what I have been showing you with regards to the stratospheric warming taking place across northern Asia and how it is shifting the core of the hemisphere’s coldest air out of central Asia. The bullseye of cold was centred right over central Russia and Kazakhstan during much of December but in the final 10 days of the month, it spreads out. Eastern Europe and the US Lower 48, saw a dramatic flip from warm to a cold and snowy pattern, this in part, is likely a result of that warming of the stratosphere.

The models remain consistent in warming the stratosphere over arctic Asia and even in towards the pole itself, this should help force the AO to go back negative beyond Jan 10.

Below is the stratospheric temp chart off the GFS for 24 hours from now. Notice the stratosphere is very cold from the pole to the UK. This would coincide with a POSITIVE AO, so the vortex strengthens, pressures lower to the north while they strengthen across the mid-latitudes which will help a pullpack of the cold over the US Lower 48 beyond the upcoming weekend and also keep the UK mild with high pressure dominating.

gfs_t10_nh_f24

Now check out the same chart for 196 hrs. Note the warming  pushes over top of the pole and pushes the ribbon of blue south. As warming takes place over the pole, the arctic empties it’s supply of cold air. This setup, if occurs, would finally disrupt the polar vortex completely and force the arctic air right into the areas which will be mildest over the next 10+ days. The front running 8 days is very cold for the eastern US but the back 8 will be positively mild. BUT, what’s happening high above our heads now, will bring consequences later following that 10-14 day lag.

gfs_t10_nh_f192

So, while positive or going positive now, both the AO and NAO should flip back around during the 2nd half of January and hopefully this should lead to a cold, perhaps, very cold pattern mid to late month for the UK and Ireland as well as the US Lower 48.

The above chart, backs up the two ensembles charts below..

AO

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

While the AO is important in bringing arctic air south, what’s more important for us here in the UK is the below NAO chart. Notice where the general consenses is heading?

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

So, there you have it. This is WHY i believe colder times our ahead and while this looks promising, nothing is a given. I seem to have to reiterate this point more and more since some seem to think that what I believe and think will happen, has to happen. Anyone can make up a forecast and say this or that will happen, but I will show you the evidence to support my idea. A forecast is and will always be a forecast and even when a pattern looks amazing, it can still go wrong and it can still bust.

Predicting how long a cold pattern will last is impossibe and not matter how good of a forecaster I or others are, you can merely hazard a guess. Even forecasting cold in the first place, in a location such as the UK, where cold is harder to come by, is very difficult in itself and very challenging.

While you may be dissapointed that winter so far, hasn’t been all that exciting. I still believe there is plenty to play for and I have shown you evidence that suggests plenty of potential for later doiwn the road. Be patient.

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  1. Jamie says:

    It will be interesting to see if this cold materialises over UK. Putting the computer model aside I think there’s as much chance, if not more chance, of us having milder weather. What is for sure is that a UK wide cold snap will come along eventually and take us by surprise as they normally do. Is 2012/2013 the winter for this? I’m as unsure as anybody.

    I have my snow shovel on standby. Thanks for the interesting post. Happy

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