If you think it’s wild now, we may not have seen anything yet as more wet and windy weather is in store for this weekend.
We find ourselves underneath a an atmospheric crossroads. A real battle between and warm and cold air masses come together right above our heads. Often, deep plumes of moisture will ride in between those air masses, along a thermal boundary and so while one system pushes away through Friday, the next set of fronts will sweep up on a southwestern converyor to bring us a very wet and windy weekend.
Here are the latest ECMWF upper charts including 850 temps.
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Saturday
Notice the very cold air not that far to our northeast, positioned over southern Norway with an extention of this cold bleeding west out into the North Sea, some of this cold air is being driven into Scotland via the southeast winds we’ve been feeling, resulting in heavy hill snow, but, the reason for the heavy rain at lower levels is thanks to milder air coming up from the southwest, so you see the battle between air masses right now. This battle will continue through this weekend as heights try to rise over the UK thanks to a stronger than normal ridge centred over Spain. The trouble is there is a cold trough to our west and with the ridge to the south, trough the the west and a large temperature variation within the atmosphere, this forces a moisture flow with active fronts to sweep northeast along the boundary, we unfortunately find ourselves underneath the boundary.
There is a large expanse of cold air covering Scandinavia and eastern Europe with heavy snows impacting Poland while Moscow remains locked in a freeze.
Sunday
As you can see from the above chart for Sunday, a deep upper low positioned on the eastern side of the trough draws in the two conflicting air masses, tightens the pressure field and forces deep sub-tropical moisture across the UK and Ireland. As this SW flow tightens, it forces the moisture northeast faster and warm and moist air being driven into a much colder environment means flooding rains result.
I shall post more on the challenges of next week’s forecast shortly. Should have this up by 7/7.30pm this evening.
Lots on the table for next week, especially towards the later part of next week into next weekend. Lots to play for and really anything could happen…
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