Courtesy of MeteoGroup
This morning I sent out more facebook posts and tweets regarding the concerning setup for Thursday. We have had significant flooding across parts of Ireland and Scotland with system 1, system two will have cleared the northern UK tonight but heavy rains will impact the Midlands, South and Southeast the rest of tonight and through the first half of tomorrow.
When looking at the latest GFS, unfortunately, the concerns I have had for this particular system since last weekend remains for Thursday morning. It may be raised further given the saturated ground across many areas.
I wanted to show you the GFS pressure chart for early Thursday morning and you can see this above. Notice the powerful ridge dominating continental Europe and the huge low dominating most of the North Atlantic with pressure expected to go from 978 into the mid-960s by late Wednesday, the UK remains beneath the fightzone between these two very different, conflicting air masses. As you can see, as the pressure gradient tightens, so do the isobars and southwest winds.
The blocking high to the east will slow to cold front, so the larger moisture source, down near the Azores will become a bigger player in enhancing the rainfall because the southwest winds will have longer to pull it north
Check out the chart below which according to the GFS shows the front and narrow band lighting up, intensifying as it pushes across Ireland and into the western UK. If this happen, the front holds intensity and the rain band doesn’t weaken, then signifiocant flooding is a given.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
As well as heavy, flooding rains, gales will blow across Ireland and western parts of the UK with severe gales possible along exposed coasts. Look foir gusts to 60 or 70 mph. Temperatures will also be very mild and we may even see a 16C high somewhere Thursday afternoon.
I hope I’m overdone with this scenario because if it was to play out with 2-4″ of rain falling on already saturated ground within a 6-12 hour period, that would result in major flooding. Rivers would burst their banks, people would be strandid and rescues would need to be carried out all over again, just like we saw yesterday only I believe this could be worse.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
[/s2If][s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Sign in to read the full forecast…
Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial
Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]
Recent Comments