Mild Spell Next Week Could Be Followed By Taste of Early Winter For UK (Includes Video!)

Written by on October 17, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 4 Comments

As alluded to since Sunday, a significant ridge is building over Europe supporting temperatures 4-8C above normal and it’s looking more likely that after a messy next few days over Northwest Europe, this warmer air will reach the UK early next week.

What’s interesting is that while we have warmer air over Europe and indeed North America this week and into the weekend, changes are showing up over Northern Canada and Greenland with major pressure rises. This often is a telltale sign of cold building and the potential southward plunge in 10-14 days.

Firstly, next week’s warmth. Here’s Tuesday.


Notice by Wednesday how the cold building and showing itself to the north slides east. Unable to drop south due to the high over the UK and the upper low to the south. This setup, forces the trough to drop over Scandinavia, what we want to see for cold here down the road.

I recon that if we get enough sunshine Tuesday-Wednesday, temps should get to 18C in parts of Scotland and 21C in the South of England with widespread 17-18s. That would be the warmest air since Mid-September.

By the time we reach next Saturday notice the deepening trough and arctic air mass dropping south over Scandinavia and the key sign that this could be heading for UK-bound by the time we reach the closing days of the month is the fact the high which brings us mild, settled weather pushes northwest towards Greenland. This SHOULD expand that trough and open the door for this early arctic air to cross the UK from the east.

Very interesting days are upon us with the potential for an early season blast from the arctic.

I have been hesitant and this isn’t written in stone, however the signs are showing more and more and so I thought tonight was the best time to release ideas on this scenario. Up until now, I believed it was more hype and wanted to see more evidence in pattern evolution in order to buy this. Now I do.

As for later down the road. I remain strong on the idea that this won’t last. The pattern is too fluid and until we get the true winter feedback, cold comes and goes and we’re likely to see a very wet, stormy spell in November.

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  1. Michael says:

    Have you seen the EC 12z run tonight, Mark? Certainly interesting development with the EC joining the cold shot club now. And what a block it has over the Atlantic. And todays NAO index is certainly interesting, too. That’s quite a negative NAO. Now I am almost sure that we will have quite a cold ending to October. What the happens afterwards , time will tell. But I still believe this trend with the overall negative NAO will continue…perhaps with interludes of positive in November, as you suggest.

  2. Karen says:

    Thanks Mark – very informative. Exciting times and pretty hard to forecast at the moment I would imagine. I’m looking forward to the Winter forecast!

  3. Michael says:

    Great article and video! That’s the cold shot we talked about a while back, Mark. I think it might be rather short lifed, too, but it’s great to see that the potential is there.
    We have a few rather pessimistic comments on a Danish weather forum due to this upcoming warm spell in the coming days – a few individuals even compare now with the aweful autumn and winter of 2006-07 because of the perspectives og 18-20 celsius by the end of this week. To be honest, I can’t see the parallels – the autumn 2006 was record breaking warm and so was the summer. This autumn and summer haven’t been like that in any way whatsoever. I think they are two completely different patterns.
    A few of us keep telling them to keep an eye on the trend of the NAO index. It’s been persistantly negative for quite some months now. I personally don’t believe that general trend will go away in the coming months. And while we did have negative NAO index by the end of October/early November in 2006, it’s nothing compared to the trend we are seeing now. That’s why my confidence of a cold winter in Northwest Europe this year is so high. I hope we are not proven wrong.

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