Written by on October 17, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments



The conditions were perfect last night for the first fast freeze following heavy showers during the middle part of the night. With a cold air mass in place, once those showers pushed through and skies cleared, the temperature sharply dropped to freezing or just below allowing car and even pavements to ice and glaze over. You can see that from the picture I took at around 1.15 this morning.
Through the rest of today and it’s a cold, damp affair with outbreaks of rain under a heavy cloud deck, temperatures are struggling at 7-9C countryside and in the Highlands, it may struggle to hit 1-2C. Factor in any wind and it’s feeling well below freezing and distinctly wintery with snow covered hills. Where lows dropped to -5 or lower over the Central Highlands/Grampians, snow may fall for much of the day above 1,000ft with a high in Braemar perhaps failing to reach freezing. A heavy cloud deck which came up from England this morning, replaced clear skies across much of Scotland. As this rain pushed into the cold air, snow fell initially to fairly low levels (below 1,000ft) over the Grampians but as the air moderates, so the precipitation returns to liquid.
The remainder of today’s looks cold, damp and windy but while winds and cloud hold throughout tonight, the persistent and at times heavy rains should clear towards the west coast where it remains heavy and persistent across Dumfries and Galloway up through Ayrshire and up through the West Highlands and Islands.
Tonight will hardly be a mild night but much less cold than the night just gone. Cloud and wind will keep the temperature above freezing but factor in the damp air and a stiff wind with temperatures around 4-6C and it’s likely to still feel near freezing.
Tomorrow will be cloudy with a chance of showers anywhere. There will be little in the way of brightness and temperatures should be up a notch from today at nearer 10C, winds a little lighter which will make the windchill less than it is today.
Iced over windscreen early this morning after heavy showers pushed through. (Courtesy of Mark Vogan)


After the heavy rains of last night and early this morning, it’s a largely dry and even bright afternoon across the bulk of England with the exception of the South Coast where heavy showers are pushing up from the Channel aboard a strong to near gale force wind. The wind will likely push showers perhaps 50-100 miles inland and should affect the London area too. The strongest winds through late afternoon will be along the Southwest coast where gales continue and combined with high tides, watch out for coastal flooding. The wind blowing off the channel will make it feel a bit raw despite the milder source. Winds are fresh to strong throughout the country and with that southerly direction, temperatures are climbing beyond the levels seen in recent days with 14-16C possible. Factor in sunshine and it’s a big improvement from recent days.
Through tonight, while much of England remains dry but cloudy, the exception will be Kent up through London, East Anglia and extending up through Lincolnshire where another pulse of heavy rain advances up from the south. With already saturated ground, watch out for local flooding. Temperatures tonight are fairly mild ranging from 8-14C.
Tomorrow will be largely fine and dry with a mix of sun and cloud for the majority. Winds lighter thasn today. Temperatures range from 12-15C, perhaps a 16C where sunshine remains persistent. The exception will be the Southeast corner, perhaps extending cloud and showers up through Greater London and across to East Anglia, this stubborn band is thanks to a boundary skirking the western mainland of the continent which sdeperates increasingly mild air to the east with low pressure and chilly air to the west.
GFS (NCEP): North Sea, MSL Pressure, 2012101712 +18h, Th 18.10.2012 06z


It’s been a rough past 12 hours throughout Wales with heavy rains overnight now cleared out but they’ve been quickly followed up by frequent heavy showers which could bring hail and thunder with them. The biggest feature today is the wind with gusts frequently topping 50-60 mph along the coast, 30-40 mph throughout inland areas. These strong southerly winds will continue into this evening before easing some overnight.

There are warnings out for the south and southwest coasts for coastal flooding due to the combination of onshore gales and the highest tides of the year… Be careful if your near the coast through this evening and overnight.

With a milder flow, temperatures today are milder than of late but the warmth is stripped away from the body due to strong wind and chill factor. Highs 12-15C. Tonight and it remains windy or very windy, especially along the coast and showers will continue to pile in with some merging along the west coast to bring a more persistent, heavy rain overnight, temperatures will be mild at near 10C for most.

Tomorrow will be somewhat of an improvement with less showers, lighter winds (but still blustery) and more sun and this should allow a slighter warmer feeling day than today.

GFS (NCEP): North Sea, Precipitation, 2012101712 +3h, We 17.10.2012 15z

Northern Ireland

A very wet and blustery day throughout Ulster with a lot of rain, cloud and no sunshine to be had. Factor in a stiff east wind blowing off the Channel and it won’t feel particularly warm by any means. Through this evening and the heaviest rains are aligned in the east from Warrenpoint to Belfast and up towards the Antrim coast, while skies turn drier with perhaps a hint of late day brightness appearing in the far west. Through tonight and the rains should ease with the heaviest band pushing out over the Channel, hit or miss showers across the country. Winds remain brisk out of the east, southeast and temperatures hold up near 8-11C.

Tomorrow will see drier and brighter weather with less wind and mild temperatures. The lighter winds should allow it to feel milder at between 12-15C.


After parts of the South experienced a very poor overnight and morning with gales, heavy, flooding rain and coastal flooding, this afternoon hasn’t been much of an improvement with strong winds everywhere and coastal gales. These strong winds are also pushing heavy, thundery downpours across the country and these shall continue long into tonight. Expect gales along the west, perhaps south coast through tonight with gusts reaching 60+ mph which may cause minor tree and structural damage. This also keeps the coastal flood threat high as tides reach their peak for the year.

Tomorrow should be an improvement and although showers, some thundery will continue, it shouldn’t be quite as windy or wet as today and tonight will be.

Temperatures tonight will be held up at 6-11C thanks to wind and cloud, tomorrow 13-16C.

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