Written by on October 4, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

General Synopsis

The overall synoptic chart across the Atlantic is currently very complex with many low pressure centres dominating. The nearest low to the UK is north of Shetland at around 988 mb and over the next 24 hours it will track east and deepen, becoming a decent storm for southern Scandinavia. It is this low which has dominated the UK pattern over the past several days. A very large, parent low dominates the central Atlantic at this time and it is this will be bring a very unsettled period of wet and windy weather to Britain over the next 2-4 days at least. This system is spawning lows, of which one will push towards and cross the Southern UK over the next 24 hours. Another low will follow on behind and cross the same part of the UK during Sunday. Both lows have fronts stretching out ahead of these storm’s which will bring rain in well ahead of the actual system. Over the next 72+ hours, there will be a lot of rain, particularly over Wales, Southern and Central England.

The unbroken stream of moisture which spreads out ahead of the low, with it’s warmer source region means that flooding is likely with 1-2 inches of rain expected widely across South and Mid Wales, Southwest and all of Southern England over just the next 24 hours. The low will also tighten the isobars up and this will bring strong winds throughout Southern Britain during the overnight hours, adding to an already miserible night. Expect gales down along the Channel Coast.

Further north and with higher pressure at the surface, though showers are possible along the West Coast and across parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland, should see another largely dry night with clear skies.


Today has been a much improved picture with less showers and more sunshine. Light winds and the decent spells of sunshine helped make the 12-14C feel comfortable.

Into tonight and it will be another clear night for many with a touch of rural frost likely where skies remain clearest for longest. A freshening west wind in the west will bring a chance for some showers through the overnight along with increased cloud. Frost chances are lower in the west, higher in the sheltered east.

Tomorrow should be similar to today with sunshine with a chance of some showers passing by. Highs range from 12-15C, much like today.

Friday night and again, under clear skies, light winds, frost will form with temps ranging from 5-6C in towns and cities or where cloud lingers, closer to 1-2C where skies are clear.

Saturday looks fine, dry, settled and sunny with just an off shower to be had. Saturday night looks chilliest with many areas, even in towns and cities perhaps pushing 0C, could get down to between -1 and -4C in rural areas. -6C in the Highlands.

Sunday looks similar again following a cold, frosty start.



The majority of England has enjoyed a largely dry, bright and sunny day with an easing of the showers from recent days.

While showers continue pushing into western England through tonight with more organised rain spreading up from the south to affect much of Emngland later in the night, we may see an early drop in temperature east of the Pennines which may allow for a touch of frost. However it’s all eyes on the Southwest and eventually all of Southern England later tonight as a significant weather system pushes in.

A major canopy of rain accompanied by strengthening winds will work in from the southwest tonight. These rains hit Cornwall first and will eventually eventually envelop all of the South with pulses intense bands working through the canopy most of tonight. The persistence and heaviness of the rain is a concern. The heavy rains will have likely reached London before midnight or 1am and by the middle part of the overnight, heavy, windswept rains will likely be affecting much of East Anglia. We could see flooding even across London with wind gusts pushing 50 mph. You may waken to the sound of  a howlling wind and rain battering west and south exposure windows of your house. Signs and lamp posts will likely get a good rattling. Watch for blinding rains and a rapid build up of surface water on the roadways. These rains will be heavy, persistent and at times torrential.

Image from Daily Mail

While 40-50 mph gusts are likely for most inland areas, we may see 60+ mph gusts along the coast.

Into tomorrow and the heavy, organised rains should clear out by late morning in the Southwest and by early afternoon over London and East Anglia. This will allow some late afternoon sunshine but with the boundary still running across the South of England, a secondary wave of heavy rains appear to sweep in by early evening.

Saturday looks to be the best day as high pressure slides in. Though the rain band is never far off the South Coast, it should be largely fine, dry and sunny.

Saturday night into Sunday will see a potential for a widespread rural frost under clear skies. Lows in towns and cities will dip towards 1-3C while rural areas could widely see freezing with frost. A few spots over Cumbria, Yorkshire down to Oxfordshire may see -2 to -4C.


Following another day of sun and showers, it’s all about the heavy rain spreading up from the southwest tonight. This raqin looks to cover the country but the heaviest will be over Mid and South Wales where anywhere from Pembrokeshire to Cardiff may see locally 2 inches of rain over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Through tomorrow and rains linger along the South Coast but it should be drier across Mid and North Wales with perhaps some brightness. I do think it may stay fairly dull and then come tomorrow night, yet another batch of heavy rain sweeps in.

Saturday morning should see brightness return and the afternoon is looking good with plenty of autumn sunshine. Saturday night under clear skies, light winds will turn cold with frost.

Northern Ireland

Today has been a generally fine, dry and bright day across Northern Ireland but as we progress into the evening hours, there is likely to be a pep of heavy showers pushing across the country from west to east. These should ease down through the night and with some clearing skies before dawn, a touch of light frost is possible in sheltered areas.

This clearing and drying out during the second half of the night should make way for another largely dry and mostly sunny day tomorrow. Temps 13-15C.

Saturday and much of Sunday looks dry and bright with a cold, frosty night in between.


Today has been a largely nice, pleasant autumn day across Eire but even now, the clouds, windsd and rains are advancing and will dominate the south and central portions of the country through tonight. Heavy, persistent rain accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales. These rains ease early tomorrow morning and should allow some resbite before a second wave comes through later tomorrow.

Saturday lools to be a much improved picture with bright, sunny skies and mild air. Saturday night could see a widespread frost.

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply