Courtesy of MeteoGroup
If you read yesterday’s post which looks in detail at our rather complex pattern over the next 7 days then you’ll have noticed I made mention about the possibility of seeing very heavy rain working up from the Azores into Southern England and Wales during Sunday. If you haven’t, take a look as it gives insight into some very unsettled weather not just for Sunday but well into next week too which will affect all areas of the UK.
If you notice from the forecast charts, they have Tropical Storm Nadine near the Azores but it backs west back into the Central Atlantic where believe it or not, may reintensify. Although the primary low never actually has influence on our weather, what it may spawn could and models haven’t wavered from the scenario of bringing a low with tropical origins up. There is often more concern over ‘tropical origin’ systems coming up from the south, not because they’ll strike on a storm or hurricane (we’re too cold for that to happen) but there is often much more moisture contained in warm air as where waters are warm too. Drive this ‘greater amount of water’ into a colder environment like what’s over the UK and the moisture within the system gets rung out like a sponge.
The low that Nabine spawns over the next 24 hours is shown by models to push northeast while a high builds over the UK. The wet weather currently draped across central, southern Scotland/N England will slowly drift south through tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a dreary, cold and damp day in the Midlands while it should be a much better day to the north after today’s rain. This band will eventually drop into N. France and this gives way to a stunning Saturday for ALL of the UK. It will likely be a cold night Friday into Saturday with frost for many away from the warmth of towns and cities. Unfortunately, while the sun shines, the child of Nabine will be gathering strength to the south and will be heading towards the South Coast.
While Sunday should start off ok, it will likely be a day which quickly goes downhill with increasing wind and eventually heavy rain (possibily embedded thunderstorms). These rains are likely to impact MOST OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND with the heaviest rain, currently shown to be over Cornwall, S Wales and the Midlands. Amounts are uncertain but with this scenario, we could see anything from 1-4 inches of rain over a 24-36 hour period. This rain could spread up into N England and Scotland later in the day. Winds everywhere will be fresh, possibly strong even up as far north as Aberdeenshire. Like I say, this is a low of tropical origin and once it pushes into a far colder overall envirionment, those rains could be prolific. causing flooding, perhaps flash flooding.
The latest GFS shows the low deepening during Saturday and with a sub-988 mb low by Sunday morning as the centres pushes up against the Cornish Coast, so wind as well as heavy rain will be a significant factor with gales even for inland S Wales/S England.
Here’s the latest GFS pressure chart for later Sunday.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
Here’s what it shows in precipitation. Exact location in which the centre comes in at and pressure is all very uncertain. We will know more when a centre forms and the models have a better handle on things.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
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