Today was similar to yesterday with some heavy, thundery showers rattling into northern and western areas of Scotland though much less widespread compared to yesterday. Some of those showers were reportedly containing a mix of rain, sleet and snow and not just to high levels up over the Northwest Highlands, no real surprise given how cold the origin of this flow is.
Through tonight, surface high pressure will build in and this will shut down more of the shower activity though they will continue in a more isolated fashon over northern and western areas but interior areas throughout much of the UK should see a drier, less windy and clearer night. This of course means a cooler night with a greater liklihood of frost by morning away from towns and cities.
Tomorrow should be a largely fine, dry and sunny day but that NW breeze still noticeable, this combined with the cold pool in place will keep temperatures from rising very far. Like today, highs will struggle to between 9-14C in Northern and Central areas, 15 or 16C in the South and it could be a slow recovery following a cold night by September standards.
Tomorrow night could support an even greater chance of frost as surface high pressure shall be in place rather than building in through tonight. (lighter wind, less cloud and even cooler air aloft). Unfortunately, make the most of the drier, sunnier weather tomorrow and into the first part of Thursday because an Atlantic low will spread a band of rain across the UK stretching from Southern Scotland to the North Midlands/North Wales. This boundary will support some fairly persistent and at times heavy rain which could linger much of the second half of Thursday and through a good part of Friday also. Either side of this band of cloud and rain it should be dry and sunny but remaining cool. Underneath the cloud and rain temperatuyres will have a tough times even hitting double figures.
Here’s the GFS surface/pressure chart for Thursday.
Interestingly, the system that is Nadine looks shed a new low off her circulation and models have this system deepening as to heads up into the UK by Saturday. Right now the weekend is looking rather wet and windy with a 996 mb low pushing up from the southwest. This milder origin means heavy rains could be an issue as well as blustery winds with perhaps coastal gales.
Check out the two charts below showing Friday and Saturday!
More Autumn Air Next Week & Possible Cold Blast Looming For The Closing Days of Sept!
Looking ahead at next week and following the weekend mess with wind and rain brought by low pressure, models suggest a new trough carving out over the UK so more autumn chill feeds down from Greenland and it’s all part and parcel of the negative NAO/AO. Until this flips, we’re more likely to see cool rather than mild and towards the later days of this month, models suggest some very cold nights with widespread frost and temperatures BELOW freezing up and down the UK. Brutal cold sets into Iceland and Scandinavia doesn’t look all that warm either. The end of the month and start of October could support November-like cold! Stay tuned.
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