Today has been a much improved day across London and the Southeast compared to yesterday where heavy showers and thunderstorms roamed the region, impacting and disrupting some events including the cycling and tennis to name just two. As I glance at the current models, the outlook doesn’t give an overly warm picture nor a particularly settled one either I’m affraid. However.. that doesn’t mean we can’t get bright or sunny days with warm temperatures. What it does mean is that we’re going to see more days than not which host an increased threat of passing showers, of which some could be heavy, thundery and so no washout looms like we saw time after time back at the start of July and throughout June.
A large and deep trough will hold strong over Northwest Europe well into NEXT WEEK and so upper level cold air will keep the potential always around for clouds and showers, however, while low pressure centres spiral around the upper vortex of cold air, the position in which they track is key as to what kind of weather London will recieve on any given day this week.
As it stands, a low which is pushing very slowly south to the WEST of Ireland will gradually deepen, it will spread an initial, front running area of rain across the South of England tonight and this may bring some minor disruption to Tuesday morning’s events around Londoin but the rain looks to push north of London by noon onwards. This clearing should allow the sunshine to filter through and thus temps should push 20-21C (70-71F) like we’ve seen today.
Coldest night since June ahead for Scotland tonight?
Back to tonight, while clouds and rain increase across England, Wales and back across Ireland, skies will be clear with light winds over Scotland. Low heights aloft will support a cold late July night with towns and cities falling well into single figures with rural areas possibly dropping down to between 3-5C (upper 30s to around 40F). An odd spot in the Highlands and perhaps the Southern Uplands may see grass frost by morning with a temperature dipping to near 1C.
Low deepens to near 980mb off Ireland, sends heavy rain and strong winds across northern Britain later Tuesday
As tomorrow wears on, while an area of rain pushes north over England, a more organised canopy of rain will advance from the southwest as the low well west of Ireland deepens. The cold front into the western UK mainland Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a wet and windy day across Ireland, Northern Ireland, much of Scotland (heaviest and windiest in the west) and northern England and Wales. Expect coastal gales and windy conditions everywhere in the mentioned areas.
While the low holds back to the west but deepens towards 980mb, hurling a band of heavy rain and strong winds across the northern UK, London will remain EAST of the cold front through Wednesday but it’s the presence of the cold front and orientation of the isobars which will allow SW winds to increase during the afternoon and factor is some of that late July sun and it should get pretty warm and increasingly humid. I think later into the evening hours and showers will push into the London area but not before high push the upper 70s Wednesday afternoon.
If all this plays out like the models are suggesting, the showers and more unsettled weather will push into the Southeast by Wednesday evening and these may linger into Thursday morning. However, like we should see tomorrow, with clearing from noon onwards, we should see this also into Thursday afternoon with clearing skies and the return of sunshine. Unfortunately, liongering showers into the afternoon can’t be ruled out. Right now I suspect improvement by noon Thursday following the overnight and am showers.
Friday could see a reinforcement of unsettled weather from the southwest but London looks to be dry
By the time we reach Friday, more showers will affect areas NORTH of London and into this weekend the upper heights remain low, showers will be around and temperatures look to be average or slightly below, especially up over more northern areas.
Take a look at the below upper charts off the ECMWF which takes you out to NEXT weekend. Notice how the trough holds firm over the UK and Ireland, this will keep the lows coming and the showers dampening the ground. But like I say, remember, though it’s an overall unsettled pattern, some days will be better than others and temperatures not that bad. At least it’s not like it was back at the start of July or last month right?
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