While looking at both the GFS surface and ECMWF upper charts this evening I see no hint of change over the next 10 days. While I felt a glimmer of optimism yesterday with the model transfering the heat from Ukraine to Spain and even the signs of a trough dipping into the east, there isn’t any northward expanding ridge I was hoping for. The NAO isn’t playing ball either with a struggle to reach neutral never mind positive. The remainder will stay pretty much the way the entire month has played out. The dissapointment will continue if your in search of sun, sand and sea. All in all it has been a rather benign first meteorological month of summer 2012 with no warmth to speak of.
As stated already, this summer does now look cool and wet overall. Yes there will be warm spells but, like in the US, thery will be shorter lived than normal, perhaps only lasting a few days or at best 5-7 days.
Through this weekend and into next week the jet flattens out and this means the heat over SE Europe eases as it shifts west across the Med to Spain where the heat builds through next week. In fact, if you want heat I suggest you head for Spain as a full blown heat wave looks likely through next week. As for the rest of Europe, the flattening out of the western trough, east ridge means Atlantic air will be able to cross the continent even reaching the east of Europe. For the UK while we may see a day or two similar to today and tomorrow with more sun than cloud and highs into the low 20s, we will always await that next Atlantic low.
Below is the current ECMWF look at the remaining days of June. It speaks for itself.
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