>Europe Coldwave Keeps On Going, May Get Worse Before Better!

Written by Mark Vogan on February 6, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Europe Coldwave Keeps On Going, May Get Worse Before Better!

Temperatures dipped to bitter levels once again this morning from the Low Countries where Amsterdam fell to -10C (14F) to -40C/F over the Finnish Interior. Germany shivered in their coldest morning in quarter of a century with -29.1C (-20F) on the Baltic Sea Island of Usedom, even mainland Germany shivered to -28C (-19F).

Models show resurge of Siberian chill over Europe next 7-10 days, Potentially dangerous cold to take aim at Moscow

While it has been significantly brutal throughout the continent over the past 10 days with record cold following significant snows from Russia/Ukraine to the Netherlands and even Britain, unfortunately it looks pretty certain that a resurge of the brutal Siberian chill will push into Europe, keeping the harsh conditions going for some time to come. My fear with this resurge is that some may not have seen their worst.

A significant upper level cut off low which models show intensifying will not only intensify into a large, intense vortex of super cold air which taunts Moscow but should draw a fresh surge of extremely cold air out of Siberia and over eastern and central Europe. This would mean yet more records fall and likely another trigger to bigtime snowstorms.

This is why I believe some areas, while they have encountered their coldest temperatures in years, may still have worse to come.. Quite incredible.

UK-Ireland may get bitten more by this than the last wave of Siberian chill

We could arguably say, that the recent chill over the UK and less so over Ireland is a glancing blow, a tease to snow and cold lovers.

However, I fear this next surge may be one to pay particular attention to as I believe it may well have a better chance at reaching far western Europe with a piece of the core splitting away from the main reservoir over the whole continent. The NAO is expected to drop well into negative territory and combined with this new surge of Siberian air, I can see a significant cold spell coming for the UK and westernmost Europe from Feb 15 onwards and could last well into March. Like in Dec 10, the core may end up over France/England while from Germany eastwards, conditions moderate as ridging builds up from Africa.

All speculation but this is where I believe our end game to this winter is going and when all is said and done, not only will Britain have made up for the lack of winter to start but we may find many areas of Europe have endured one of their coldest Jan 15 through Feb 28 periods on record. Many more records will fall in the next 20-30 days and Britain and Ireland may join the growing list!!

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Figure 3a: Ice cover on February 3, 2012 across the eastern Great Lakes. Notice the turbidity in the water on Lake Erie but almost a total lack of ice cover.
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Figure 3b: Ice cover on February 3, 2011 across the eastern Great Lakes. Notice that Lake Erie is completely iced over, and fresh snow cover highlights the other geographic features around each lake Image Credit: NOAA LANCE

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