>1 April, 2010: Last "Cold Night" until Next Winter? My reasoning for Why Summers have been such a washout? Also what the long-term Future of our Climate may be

Written by on April 1, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 2 Comments

>January-Level Cold to Dawn the 2nd morning of April but don’t fret, here’s some summer theory which may lift your winter blues…

Note Aviemore’s expected low tonight!!


It’s understandable that if the Pacific is warm and Atlantic is warm, your going to warm the continents in between… We have seen WELL ABOVE normal water temperatures over the past 10 years, but generally waters have been above normal since the turn to global warming back at the commencement of the 1980s, the early to mid 2000s has seen probably some of the greatest above normal water temperatures around Britain and this has ultimately produced warmer winters and fed Atlantic low’s which have produced wetter, windier conditions, but also wetter summers also.

A warmer ocean or sea surrounding a small island like Great Britain will increase water vapor to the atmosphere, when you get a pattern which sends those Atlantic depressions our way, it’s very possible, that warmer water surrounding us will feed energy into storm system and increase both it’s energy and more importantly, it’s amount of rainfall it can produce.

2007 through 2009 have been epic wet, dreary summers, particularly for Scotland where the jet stream has stubbornly ran over us, England tends to be just far enough south to experience slightly drier and warmer summers as continental warmth can reach southern England more efficiently than further north. Although last summer was still milder than “average”. It was mild, through the rainy days and because the overall picture was of a warmer rather than a cooler one… That has been the way for years now and the “warmer than normal summer” was deceptive.

So, a warmer Atlantic over the last 3 years I believe has INCREASED our summer precipitation but what happens when that same water surrounding us COOLS which it has done, thanks to a cold winter, WE REALLY NEEDED A NICE LONG-LIVED COLD WINTER to drive those abnormally warm NE Atlantic waters down and this may be what we need in order to snap the pattern we have found ourselves in since 2007 began AFTER a warmer, drier summer in 2006…

Many reactions occur when major drivers switch or flip. The major Atlantic driver such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has major influence on particularly winter in Western Europe and eastern North America but also plays a role in an either settled or unsettled summer pattern the AO (Arctic Oscillation) also can influence summer, but less so, and likely the biggest and certainly larger scale influence is that of the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean which feeds back to the GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE and can alter the mean ridge trough pattern across the globe depending on whether there’s an El Nino and La Nina in effect, of course these work with other drivers to produce the overall weather pattern. The El Nino of this past winter, combined with possibly a higher concentration of High-Latitude Volcanic Activity is the possible cause of major “Blocking” which meant the worst of the cold over the Arctic was delivered and stationed over Western and Central Europe and the heart of central and northern Asia…

Ocean and Atmosphere play in harmony and this summer, the collapsing El Nino which warmed the overall temperature of the earth (believe that or not) and this combined with cooler waters surrounding the UK, “should” mean a break from the washout years between 2007 and 2009. After this El Nino goes, a La Nina will develop and we are likely to see a rapid fall in earth’s temperature over the next two to three years, what that will mean for UK long-term weather remains to be seen. Next winter already appears to look LESS HARSH than this winter because we won’t have the El Nino which tends to help a colder UK/western Europe winter and also waters may likely rebound as a warmer summer, dominated by High Pressure, gradually heats up our surrounding waters once again, BUT it doesn’t mean a cold winter won’t happen next year, I just feel we may have a slight rebound but could well still have a “below normal winter” temperature-wise as our overall temperatures is gradually falling again year by year. I just don’t not quite see a repeat of 2009-10 for the UK.. The AMO is still warm and other pattern drivers will be in control by 2010-2011. Perhaps we see a less overall cold winter but a period of cold which re-writes the history books or produces bigger snows… A la Nina will dominate the cold pools, distributing the cold pools differently and even the NAO and AO will likely have changes up their sleave from this year. No year is the same.. (I wouldn’t be surprised if much of the US and Canada saw an EXTREMELY SEVERE AND LONG WINTER next year with La Nina coming on. Though winter 2010-11 may be as bad as this year in the UK, we should have a colder overall earth, so we will need to wait and see what.


That all being said, of we happen to see a further rise in Arctic volcanic activity, then we might see this type of winter we just had sooner rather than a few years down the road. Whilst this winter was certainly severe and long, I have deemed this one “average” when compared to those batch of winter during the heart of the last cold period from the start of the 50s through the 70s.. It has been severe when comparing with the last 30 winters in which global warming and a warmer than normal Atlantic and Pacific have been warming the overall temperatyre of earth and therefore taking an edge off winters globally. This past winter may be a sign of the AMO flip to cold and that means a gradual cooling of UK winters look likely, it won’t be a sudden return to the ice age but more a step down year by year. One winter that’s very cold may be followed by a less cold winter, but just not as warm as previous ones… then a colder winter again… you get what I mean?? Evetually the Atlantic will be cold and both Pacific and Atlantic should have a period of several years were their both cold and therefore a series of years should display brutal winters. What must be considered though is that if the solar cycle continues to fall away and this meets head to head with some major Arctic Volcanic eruptions, worse winters than those of the 50s, 60s and 70s may happen. Believe me, we should all be concerned if winters in the era between 1700 and 1900 return… Those kinds of winters would make the past winter the a stroll in the park….

Appologies for this rather long-winded post, I didn’t intend on writing quite as much as I have done…

Thanks for reading.

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  1. Mark'sWxWorld says:

    >over nearly 5 MONTHS of cooling,yes! when you have a cold pool stationed over an area, you cool the ocean!!

  2. Anonymous says:

    >Are we so sure that a a locally cold winter can cool an ocean over a few weeks?

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