>31 March, 2010: Mark Vogan’s Preliminary United Kingdom Summer Forecast 2010

>A WARMER, DRIER, BRIGHTER SUMMER LIKELY THIS YEAR, Despite Britain suffering through it’s Coldest Winter in Decades and the past 3 summers being a washout…..

By Mark Vogan

Hyde Park, London, July 2009 (photo courtesy of the Daily Mail)

Despite a long, tiring winter dealing with snow, ice and cold, I have reasons to believe that this upcoming summer season could prove to become the warmest, driest in several years after 3 straight “Washouts”.

EL NINO WARMING

El Nino’s influence in the Pacific, which is a warming of the equatorial Pacific, influences climatic pattern across the world. The stronger it is the more effect it can have. El Nino has influence on our winter, helping harness the colder air masses over the UK. This upcoming summer will see the collapse of the El Nino but it’s effects will live on and is in my opinion likely to contribute as well as a few other factors in providing the UK a warmer summer ahead which I believe the effects of will be felt during the month of May.

This winter saw a domnant “Arctic High Pressure” which persistently kept us cold. This summer after we get rid of this unsettled spring weather, a warm(Azores) High Pressure syetem will likely push north and could very well dominate the UK weather map for a series of weeks IN THE HEART OF THE SUMMER season.. i.e. June, July and August. If we can hold a ridge of high pressure over the UK in the heart of the summer months, then we are very likely to see some warm to potentially hot days even across the typically “Cooler” North half of the UK. Places from Manchester, Birmingham down to London will see “typical summer warmth” but this is LIKELY to be longer lived and as time goes on and the High intensifies over the UK, temperatures will heat up and nights will become uncomfortable.
HIGHER AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS
With a generally long spells of sunshine and warm to hot days, there is a greater likelyhood that we see more frequent thunderstorms and isolated downpours which can contain, flooding rains, hail and even the odd tornado, we often see during a hot summer or heat wave, the build up of heat which often sparks thunderstorms, these can often be looked at when a sea breeze blows across a hot interior and then upslopes hills, often building cumulonimbus clouds, watch those fair-weather cumulus on a hot afternoon, they can start to grow vertically as heat rises and these clouds start to rise into the colder upper levels of the atmosphere.
COASTAL AREAS (PARTICULARLY THE NORTH SEA COAST) TO SEE MORE FOG THIS SUMMER
Due to cooler surrounding coastal waters, a direct result of the cold winter, the colder water and warm temperatures inland, are likely to produce a stronger onshore flow or sea breeze as the land heats and the lower air pressure over land as it heats reacts to the higher air pressure off the coast, the greater the land heats, the stronger to sea breeze reacts to balance out the conflicting pressures…. Also there will likely to an increase in fog, these two features are likely to result in cool coastal areas, including the beaches and dissapointing days where thick coastal fogs obscure the summer sun, making it feel cold. The North Sea is likely to see the greatest fog formations sindce it’s colder than the Atlantic is.
WARNING TO SWIMMERS THIS SUMMER!
Due to the cold winter, Lochs, lakes, even rivers as well as the sea or ocean will likely be colder than normal. I particularly warn those who wish to bathe in Scottish Lochs as these bodies of water are typically cold but with the winter we’ve just had and the temperatures these inland lochs can drop to means a real danger of both cramp development or even if you get stuck, you risk hypothermia… Remember, these lochs can be inviting on a hot summers day when you want to cool off, but they can pose danger and won’t warm up very fast, especially those that are tucked away in sheltered Glens. The same really goes for those Lakes in England, Wales and N. Ireland/Ireland though these are likely to not be quite as cold still during the middle of summer but caution should still be taken..
LONDON to see many 30C days, 20C nights, GLASGOW to see many mid-20C days and even a run at 30C.
I do expect a heatwave this summer sometime in late June or July (or both) which could last for perhaps 10 days to 2 weeks. Even areas of Scotland may take a run at 30C in the midst of mid-20s which should become typical.

SPRING UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD LEAVE PRIOR TO SUMMER’S TRUE WARM-UP…

In order to see a “Hot Summer”, we need a less wet spring and a chance for soils to dry out. High Pressure and it’s effects of warm, sunny weather has limited “heating potential” if we enter spring saturated. Wet soils feed water vapor back to the atmosphere and so incoming solar energy will be limited as to how much it can heat the ground. Some of the sun’s energy would be used up for evaporation. A dry period beforehand and then the advancement north of the “Azores High Pressure System” would mean some real good, warm and even hot weather from London to Inverness.

WHY DO I THINK A WARMER, DRIER SUMMER IS LIKELY?

(1) North Atlantic SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) have cooled dramatically over last summer and of course during the cold winter. This can aid in feeding back to the atmosphere and can help harness High Pressure over a cooler ocean before than a warm one.

(2) El Nino’s and the cold weather they can help create to Britain, can also tend to aid in a warmer summer to follow.

(3) Hurricane Season Pattern’s in the Tropical Atlantic also favor a warmer, UK summer

Interestingly enough, with the pattern set up this winter with colder air over the UK and Europe as well as the USA, it has surpressed the typically milder air that would in recent times pushes into the UK via Atlantic storms has been held further south, meaning all the highly concentrated warm air has sat over the Tropical Atlantic (Hurricane breeding grounds) and this has worried hurricane forecasters of a potentially bad, even devastating year ahead. This set up within the ocean of warmer in the deep tropics and cooler water than recent years nearer Britain and a band of substantially colder water stretching from North America to the Mediterannean Sea, LOWER PRESSURES are more likely further south and HIGHER PRESSURES further north. What does this mean? Storm Development should be surpressed this summer towards to tropics, whilst Higher Pressures further north, means sunnier, drier and ultimately HOTTER days for the UK….

This will be in stark contrast to 2007, 2008 and 2009 where record or near record RAINS was the dominant aspect. This past winter and the drivers which created the winter here, is likely to aid in bringing us a much deserved rainfall respite!!!
What is also important to remember when reading this forecast. There will be cloudy and rainy days but this forecast is based on the OVERALL pattern that I expect this summer…. We live in Britain and even during the warmest, driest of summers, we can and do still recieve rainy days and cooler temps, it won’t all be warm, sticky and dry but we should see the best summer since at least 2006. Can we push 2002 and 2003? Well I don’t quite think it will be that warm but you never know!!
A more detailed forecast background will be released with this later today!