>Whilst a reversal from clear and calm across Scotland is replaced by clouds, much of England will endure yet another night under clear, starry skies and light winds which is likely to bring -2 to -4C readings to many locations across the central part of England from Preston to Oxford, whilst even coastal towns and places just inland from the sea may see freezing conditions and frost, some of the colder spots between Preston and Oxford may see lows drop to between -5 and -8C tonight with a location possibly dropping to -10C, somewhere like Benson, Oxfordshire is a good bet for such a low….
This is in stark contrast to the -18C in Braemar, Aberdeenshire just a few days ago. Clouds have rolled in and have warmed Scotland dramatically and by day, highs are topping close to 10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh as the March sun grows ever stronger. No doubt when skies clear and with plenty of snow still remaining on the ground we are likely to see a few more nights across Scotland’s Highlands between -8C and -14C.
More detailed posting tomorrow.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
>And there is another problem with this kind of forecasting. This only gets into the issue of the overall average for a winter. So you could have a winter that averages warmer than normal, but could also have a few periods of bitter cold and heavy snow, and that is all people will remember. Or a winter where it is cooler than normal, but with no significant outbreaks of cold or snow. People might call that a mild winter, even if temps "averaged" below normal. The sensible weather is what matters. That is why private forecasters are so valuable. They convey what may really happen with the weather, not the overall average.
And there is the 30 year problem. If you only look at the 30 years, you could be deceiving yourself. Suppose you looked at a model rocket that was blasted off by some elementary school students. You could mark two points in time, say 2 seconds before the apex and one second after the apex (when it is headed down). Based on those two points, you could falsely conclude that the rocket is still rising, since the second point is probably at a higher altitude than the first point. So maybe compared to 30 years ago, temperatures might be higher, but if you look at the bigger picture, you may realize that the temperatures are only beginning their freefall.