Ophelia is poised to become the 10th straight Atlantic hurricane of the 2017 season which ties a very long standing record for most consecutive Atlantic named storms to become a hurricane. The other three years of which this has occurred is 1878, 1886 and 1893.
This is a NHC track you don’t see everyday.
TD Seventeen has become Tropical Storm #Ophelia and is the 15th named storm of the 2017 hurricane season pic.twitter.com/8zYYMzDx2U
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) October 9, 2017
The only game in town in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Ophelia. Impacts would be eastern Azores and then Europe as extratropical storm. pic.twitter.com/3NAvT6zISb
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) October 11, 2017
Looks like another transitioning tropical system to head toward UK.
GEFS 00z #Ophelia pic.twitter.com/U8rdWWbl5z— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 10, 2017
#Ophelia will be getting a lot of European attention over the coming days. Latest aggregated wind gusts here –> https://t.co/TMJFuE0fYA pic.twitter.com/PVsXmX0G93
— wxcharts (@wxcharts) October 10, 2017
12z ECMWF indicates #Ophelia may retain tropical features near Spain. No hurricanes on record (since 1851) in this region. pic.twitter.com/Wy9bpDj2zC
— Brenden Moses (@Cyclonebiskit) October 10, 2017
Latest models show #Ophelia may pose a rare hurricane-force threat to western Europe this weekend. pic.twitter.com/5uGwbe8PY6
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) October 10, 2017
Since 1851, no hurricane has made a mainland Europe landfall and neither will Ophelia and for good reason. Waters are too cool and atmosphere to hostile this far north and east.
Why might Ophelia raise eyebrows this weekend? Waters are running well above normal in it’s path.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
However, despite waters being warmer than normal from Azores to Iberia, they aren’t warm enough to maintain a tropical system.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Ophelia remains a tropical storm with 50 mph winds currently but is still expected to become an unusually far northeast hurricane. I recon it transitions within a few hundred miles off Iberia and is likely to increase swells along the coast but it looks like Ophelia’s warm, humid properties interact with the mid latitudes and deepen into a potentially powerful low, perhaps tracking north just west of Ireland and UK. This is certainly one to watch as it could drive record warmth northwards as well as generate stormy weather if it tracks close if not over Ireland or UK late weekend.
Here’s the latest GFS solution. Note how small this system is but wind field broadens as it lifts northwards.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
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