We’ve seen it so many times before, the GFS shows a top-down (10 to 50mb) sudden stratospheric warming but it either doesn’t happen or doesn’t favour the UK. Thus far, winter has been somewhat disappointing after a promising November. December and January so far has been fairly mild overall and like I’ve pointed out so many times already, the blocking high we have seen, has been too close, just like Jan/Feb 2012 with a tease of colder continental air seeping into southern Britain.
In recent winters, when it’s been mild, it’s been stormy but this time around high pressure has led to a mild but dry winter with high pressure dominance.
If anything, the GFS forecast through the next 10 days at least brings us some hope for February.
10mb
Current
168 hrs
240 hrs
50mb
Current
168 hrs
240 hrs
Even if we do get the warming the GFS has above, the key shall be where that warming takes place and the transfer from stratosphere to troposphere as this determines where the blocking highs and cold troughs setup beneath but the above certainly indicates perhaps a 30-40% chance of Greenland/Davis Straits blocking and a colder trough settling into Western Europe.
If this were to happen, I would say early February is when we would see the colder pattern set in.
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