We say goodbye to November and Autumn and welcome in December and Meteorological Winter 2016-17.
November 2016 UK extremes.
Credit: Met Office
Winter opened rather balmy across the Northern UK, rather cold across the far South/Southwest.
Credit: Met Office
Today marks the start of the Northern Hemisphere’s coldest 90 days of the year and we remain in a high pressure dominated pattern over the UK and Ireland and shall remain so into early next week while it’s cold and snowy from Germany east.
For us, it’s a rather boring pattern currently with not a whole lot going on with temps day by day and night by night only fluctuating with the presence of cloud cover.
For any real chance, we have to go out to the middle of next week as it looks as though our high pressure is replaced by the return of Atlantic low pressure with increase in wind and rain.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
In The World Of Computer Models, We Have A Very Hazy Mid-December
Things get complicated beyond 7 days, definitely after 10 as the guidance from the models isn’t there. There is no point throwing up an outlook or forecast for the Christmas/New Year period just yet when the models cannot see beyond Dec 10. This is simply because we have a weak shifting polar vortex and this, the models don’t see too well. Until we can truly determine the behaviour of the PV out to between Dec 10-15th, we cannot tell where we’re heading, whether it will be colder or mild.
IF and it’s a big if the below model of stratospheric temperature profile shows warming from north-central Asia across the pole and into Baffin Island-Greenland with main PV core drifting towards the Urals and the timing is remotely correct, then I would be swaying towards less Atlantic, more cold continental easterly influence for the UK and Western continent in the week running up to Christmas.
See yesterday/today’s video. (failed to upload yesterday but I feel it’s worth posting today)
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