For a second straight morning, many across Central Scotland woke to a fresh, albeit light covering of snow.
As well as the overnight snow showers, ice became a significant hazard shortly after dark last night under clear skies and light winds.
Check out this lovely snow and sky shot captured on a train in the Carstairs area of Glasgow this morning.
Credit: Lois A Wolffe @bigbadwolffe
We have a very interesting but tricky weekend forecast coming up. A straight west-east boundary splitting the UK in two is the dividing line between very mild air that could push temps to 15C in southern England while northern Scotland may not get above 3C. Factor in a stiff westerly wind and it will feel sub freezing.
The boundary, demarcation zone’s position will be critical and a streaming of moisture will present a flooding rain event along and just to it’s south while the potential is there for heavy snow.
At this moment in time, there appears to be a decent threat of snow through the Central Lowlands including low levels during Sunday and this could bring travel disruption.
As pointed out yesterday, we have a very amplified but still progressive pattern and mild trying to lift north and cold driving south. The current ‘cold spell’ in No 1, we see No 2 late weekend into next week and possibly a 3rd by the end of next week.
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ECMWF surface shows the separation between cold and warm. Watch out Cumbria, Lancashire, Merseyside, Yorkshire, we could see 1-3 inches of rain fall within 24 hours.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Into the evening and that boundary sinks south, so even if the snow line is just north of the Glasgow-Edinburgh corridor, we could see rain change to snow into Sunday evening.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Quite the thermal gradient at 850mb.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Looking ahead and it’s interesting to see both GFS ensemble and EPS control hold on to a blocky 500mb pattern with positive over Atlantic and eastern Europe with a locked trough in between. This is a cold look for the end of February beginning of March for the UK and Western Europe.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
EPS Control
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Looking back at the Canadian 500mb height anomaly forecast for February issued January 31, I think it’s done not a bad job.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
February without a doubt will go down as our coolest of winter. That however isn’t saying all that much given we had a record warm December and milder than normal January.
Here’s March, hum interesting.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
In the coming days I will not only be releasing my March Outlook (23 or 24th) but will be writing a discussion on how this winter played out, forecast vs reality.
See video for the discussion.
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