NEXT WEEK: Though NAO Remains Positive, Tanking AO Forces Jet South & Colder UK

Written by Mark Vogan on February 4, 2016 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

Although there’s no true sign of an NAO flip back to negative, the AO is tanking in response to the stratospheric warming and so we’;; see a southward dip in a still strong jet stream next week. This does make a difference and a colder pattern.

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Although most want to see the big Atlantic to Greenland block, a still active pattern can mean greater snow chances. So we’re on the cold side of the jet next week and that means Atlantic lows take a more southerly route. Moisture vs cold leads to at least ‘wintry precip’ if not snow and once lows pass, we tug on arctic air.

A lot depends upon just how far south the jet goes and where it sets up, storminess will be frequent. I suspect the Med will turn stormier while there’s a slow down in the upper flow across Ireland and the UK but it’s a progressive pattern.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The trough shall deepen along with the cold pool.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As you can see from the above 500mb height anomalies and the surface analysis below that heights come up considerably to the west of Ireland and thickness come down. Where skies are clear and winds light, nights will be cold, especially where there’s lying snow.