In last night’s write up I briefly showed you the wild scenario the GFS had for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast late this week into the weekend and it’s pretty amazing at how both GFS and ECMWF are going to the extreme with a real blockbuster snowstorm, perhaps blizzard.
Both models show much the same scenario with northern branch energy diving SE while the main low forms over the mid-Mississippi and connects with the northern branch energy over Virginia, possibly North Carolina and ‘bombs out’ into a tightly wound coastal storm which buries the I-95 from Richmond to at least NYC if not Boston in 1-2ft of wind driven snow. The scenario both models are showing has local snow totals up over 30 inches, possibly in the mountains west of DC and Baltimore, perhaps the Poconos. Gale-force NE winds would make for very rough surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding and quite possibly blizzard conditions.
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Here’s the ECMWF version of the weekend Nor’easter!
Check out what the ECMWF is printing out for snow totals.
Like I showed in this morning’s video, the GFS is going to a similar extreme with this!
Once this potential bomb lifts out so we should get a rise in heights and temperature over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast but it looks as though this moderation is brief as the Canadian arctic reloads and with a resurge in heights up into Greenland and Alaska with what appears to be a full latitude (coast to coast) trough setting up day 6-10 and particularly 10-15, one must wonder what else may the arctic to set to throw down. Keep in mind that highly active Pacific storm track. This could make for a wild upcoming 30 day period in areas which have essentially missed out so far. This may be pay back!
Quite amazing to see how similar to GFS is for the same 15 day stretch.
This pattern ‘reload’ dopes make sense given the Asia to Alaska strat warming that’s been ongoing for a few weeks now…
Notice the more impressive PV displacement between day 7 and 10. Watch this space.. wild February?
See this morning’s video for the discussion.
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