Powerful, El Nino Induced Sub-Tropical Jet Links Asia, North America & Europe, Acting As A Fire hose!

Written by Mark Vogan on November 27, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

This years powerful El Nino is clearly influencing the global weather pattern as we approach winter with models distinctly showing a weak northern branch and much more pronounced southern branch. It’s also about as zonal of a flow pattern as you get. Notice how it’s strong and flat lined right around the northern hemisphere in the below GFS jet stream charts.

The heat transfer from extremely warm equatorial Pacific into the atmosphere forces stronger than normal heights and a further north sub-tropical ridge and as this heat pushes north, it’s meets the naturally building cold over the high latitudes.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This baroclinic collision forces a faster flowing jet, the atmosphere’s way of trying to find balance.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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The subtropical, El Nino induced jet is literally linking Asia, North America and Europe within the same stream and without large north, south deviations.

Such a strong jet (190+ mph) and very flat crossing Pacific and Atlantic into the UK means there’s little break between systems both for North America and Europe through the next 7-10 days with big rainfall totals on western coasts. We’re set for a pretty persistent wet and windy spell with mild ahead and colder on the backside.

Note the amount of liquid pushing into western North America and Europe within just the next 7 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

A strong +AO/NAO means the could we do see, will be entrained on the backside of circulations passing south of Greenland.

After a wet, blustery night, the main cold front attached to our latest low will sink into the near continent this evening and behind it, much fresher air sweeps in with a noticeable temp drop with gusty showers falling as sleet and wet snow even to lower levels this evening across Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Temps maxed out early this morning but will continue falling through the day as colder air moves in.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Some decent snow for the Highlands.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Ice risk early tomorrow morning with falling temps overnight tonight.

Frequent windswept showers rattle in from the WNW tomorrow. Follow the isobars, their coming straight off Greenland where it’s -49C as of this writing. Some mixing possible down to low levels with coverings possible over high road routes.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Next system quickly forms and sweeps across the UK late Sunday into early Monday and there’s quite a north-south divide in temp.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Monday AM

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Monday PM

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The sharp demarcation zone slicing across central Ireland and the UK will see waves of energy run along it and as a result some big rain totals can be expected. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain to the south, much brighter but much colder to the north with wintry showers possible even to low levels.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Later next week, another deep low sweeps towards the NW UK bringing a surge of warmth ahead of it followed by a blast of ocean-modified Greenland cold. This is likely to present another spell of severe gales.