Patricia Flood Threat Extends Into TN/OH Valley, New England This Week, 1st Great Lakes Gale?

Written by Mark Vogan on October 26, 2015 in Autumn 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments

Former Hurricane Patricia continues to wreck havoc on the Southern US after bringing severe flooding across Texas late week into the weekend. Through Sunday and today the focus is on Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama where record rains and further major flooding continues while Texas begins to dry out.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Impressive wind and rain reports from Louisiana/southern Mississippi.

NWS

The system will continue to push north along with it’s heavy rains this week, likely bringing a flood threat to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys up through the Virginias, Pennsylvania and New England where 1-3, locally 6 inches may fall but notice the totals, though will still be a problem, aren’t as huge, simply because it’s heading away from it’s warm, moist source and heading into a cooler, drier environment.

Credit: AccuWeather

Below GFS surface shows the rain shield expanding as the remnants advance northward. Therefore concentration eases but coverage expands.

Also notice in the below charts that once the system interacts with colder air over Canada, baroclinic instability and enhanced lift kicks in and the low winds up into a sprawling gale centre over Ontario, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley where gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. This looks to be quite the wind machine as well as bringing the first heavy snows to some across the Upper Midwest.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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Very windy conditions expected Thursday over Midwest, Northeast.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Snow IS likely over northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan as the low pushes up into Ontario and tugs on colder air from the arctic.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Interesting to see both GFS and ECMWF sharply increase snowfall over the Intermountain West extending up over the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains between day 7-10.

GFS