Now that the large stone has been rolled away (blocking high) a more classic autumn pattern resumes for Northwest Europe with a series of systems set to bring wind and rain across Ireland and the UK this week into next along with the return of the autumn temperature rollercoaster.
The first of two systems this week move into Northwest Scotland later today bringing an increase in SW wind and eventually moderate to heavy rain. Expect it to be windy across most areas but particularly at the coast where gale-force gusts are likely.
Here’s the GFS surface for early tomorrow morning.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
The first system moves through fairly quickly and will be followed by a tighter feature that’s likely to bring the first widespread gales to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Wind gusts of 25-45 mph widely across inland areas but on exposed coasts and over mountains, we are likely to see 60-80 mph gusts. The first true gale of this autumn season.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
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That system like the first will move through fairly speedily and give way to a brief spell of high pressure but another front swings through Friday into Saturday.
Following the passing of the Saturday front, a fresher air mass follows.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
This is the start of the classic temperature rollercoaster we see at this time of year when winter and summer battle it out.
For England and Wales down into France, it’s less unsettled with high pressure bringing pleasantly mild conditions.
Meanwhile, yet another low is gathering over the central Med and this thing looks to be another trouble maker. It’s at least the 3rd strong system to impact the Med in as many weeks. Coastal gales and flooding rains look to cause issues from southern Italy all the way across to Turkey.
Credit: AccuWeather
Here’s that storm system on the GFS surface.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Lots more rain to come through the next 5 days.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Into early next week and it looks like the GFS tries to throw another autumn gale-centre our way!
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Don’t be surprised to see unusually mild air lift up ahead of these fronts then a crash in it’s wake.
Be sure to watch this morning’s video as I look at the big divide in models for the upcoming winter. Will write about this tomorrow. November Outlook will be available Thursday.
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