In my monthly outlook, October was always thought to be good and settled through the first half, turning more unsettled through the second and after a prolonged spell of settled weather thanks to a dominant upper ridge sitting over the UK redirecting typical ‘bad weather’ north into Norway and south into Iberia, it looks like we return to normal next week. HOWEVER, there appears to be some retreat from the full fledged trough expected to dive from Iceland in to the UK as per latest model runs.
Here’s the latest GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb heights.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
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EPS control sees the same.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Fronts associated with low pressure near Iceland will spread south into at least the Northern UK starting early next week as we see atmosphere attempting to reverse the high over low.
At the moment, Southeast and East England has endured hefty showers driven in by a cold northeast wind as high pressure sits over the Outer Hebrides and a sprawling low over the Alps and Germany pushes moisture north and directs a stiff wind in from Denmark.
This change doesn’t arrive until next week so enjoy more of the same through the weekend…
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Expect a very unsettled, possibly stormy late weekend and early next week over Portugal and Spain and as we head further into next week, an Atlantic low deepens off Iceland, forcing the high south.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Notice with the low pushing into Portugal that there’s little eastward progression as heights rise further east in conjunction with the large-scale high fall further north. In fact the latest GFS takes the low southwest, never really coming onshore over Portugal.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Looks like the high tries to hang on as best it can.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
As previously stated, where dry this summer, it’s turned wet and where wet it’s turned dry.
Credit WxBell
I expect a wetter November. If so, the similarity to 2009 would continue.
Throwing in all the variables including pattern and El Nino etc, the analogs point to a cold winter, even something similar to 2009-10.
Both SST Constructed analog model and Met Office have a cold, blocky kind of winter ahead.
The pattern was pretty much opposite between 2009-10 and last year. This year may be a lot more like 2009.
See this morning’s video for more.
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