Be sure to set your alarms for the rare supermoon lunar eclipse tonight. Said to peak around 3.11am, I’ll be setting my alarm probably around 2.15/2.30am to view this. Why? because the last time this occurred was the year before I was born and the next time, well it’ll be 2033.

During the peak, the moon shall appear blood red! Like this.

What is this? Here’s a great video from NASA.

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As for the weather now and through the next 7-10 days, we’re seeing a strengthening northern high, already dominating our weather but it continues to strengthen into early week, set to control our atmosphere through the foreseeable future although it will shift position slightly bringing disturbed weather up through France into the southern UK late week into next weekend.

For the UK specifically, the first half of this short work week sees literally no rain unless you live in far NW Scotland or the Western Isles. As made mention of countless times over, it’ll be pleasant, even warm feeling in the sun by day but under starry skies, it’ll feel quite cold by night, especially where winds are light.

The 1040 ridge core will be centred between Scotland and S Finland early week while lower pressure extends from Iberia east across the Med Sea. This promotes a long fetch easterly flow through central Europe reaching southern England.

It’s an unsettled week across southern Europe with lows forming and tracking westward while it’s opposite with very settled conditions through the week across the north. Modelling suggests the ridge builds to around 1042mb and lifts more into Norway through the second half of the week. This allows a strengthening easterly wind, slight drop in daytime temps but less frost potential over southern Britain by night. The threat of frost increases mid to late week across Scotland and particularly Denmark and Scandinavia.

Towards Thu-Fri, a low that could present flooding rain and gales to the central, possibly western Med looks to lift north bringing the first spell of unsettled weather into the southern UK

With colder upper levels and colder air feeding into the system from the ENE beneath the high and warm, moist air being drawn from Africa and over the warm Med with still warm low levels, feedback tightens these low pressure systems into closed lows which can even form eyes, closely resembling a warm core tropical cyclone. These systems are known as Medicanes.

ECMWF shows the storm too.

Note the strong Easterly jet stream winds circling the high over the UK and another jet crossing north Africa, this allows a large area of upward motion over the central Med.

10 m wind gusts show the high with strong westerlies on the northern flank, strong easterlies on the southern flank as well as winds spinning around the Med low.

These systems when mature, often produce gale to hurricane-force wind gusts, battering waves, flooding rain, severe weather including waterspouts or tornadoes as well as hail.

A lot of rain expected across southern Europe and Med while there’s little to none over the UK extending into central Europe beneath the high.

We had a Medicane with distinct eye just off Sicily as recently as last November which produced sustained winds of 69 mph and gusts to 96 mph on Malta with up to 6 tornadoes reported. Pressure dropped to 979mb at it’s peak.

A stunning satellite view of the eye and spiral cloud bands between Sicily and the Sahara.

While a true Medicane may or may not form this week, the pattern is conducive with strongest heights over N Europe, lowest heights underneath and over warm water.

The 500mb height anomaly charts show just how strong this ridge is becoming across northern Europe this week.

Check this 240hr GFS snow chart. First snows of season beginning to show over Scotland. More coming to the Alps.

See video for the discussion.

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Tags: high pressure, low pressure, lunar eclipse, medicane, mediterannean climate, supermoon