EUROPE 2015-16 WINTER: Met Office & Jamstec Goes For 09-10, CFSv2 06-07 or 97-98

Thought I would show you the September version of the December-February period off both the Met Office and Jamstec models. Rather interesting to say the least.

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500mb heights

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Mean sea level pressure

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

2m temperature

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Precipitation

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Jamstec

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

While at this time I don’t believe another 09-10 style winter is ahead and by that I mean LONGEVITY combined with intensity of snow and cold, I do however see another ‘mixed winter’ which can mean spells of significant snow and cold along with spells of mild. My reason is largely down to position of the current solar cycle. This is probably the most challenging all of winter forecasts.

I’m doing all I can to learn from previous mistakes and leaving no stone unturned as I’ve done in the past and it’s came back to bite. I can see the above happening IF and it’s a big if, we get a negative NAO winter with Icelandic ridge rather than back-to-back trough like we’ve seen between 2013 and 2015.

The previous two winters which have been largely warm for Europe has largely been down to the warm Gulf of Alaska, cold North Atlantic, which has supported a weaker Aleutian low and usually when that happens, you get a stronger Icelandic low but the MO model shows an Aleutian low and Icelandic high. Something not seen really seen since winter 2012-13.

I’ve said up till now that another positive NAO winter was likely for 2015-16 based on current and projected SSTA’s across the North Atlantic and I still believe this to be the case, however a warming northwest Atlantic and surrounding Greenland, north of Iceland and arctic, could support above normal heights extending from Canada across the Davis Straights into Greenland and even Iceland/Scandinavia. This, along with a more negative AO forced by warm Arctic Ocean would support more of a cold trough over the UK and western Europe, a weaker westerly with greater chance of blocking highs developing west of Ireland and the UK would certainly led to a colder outcome.

Here’s the latest SSTA’s globally.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

More importantly, here’s the change in the last 7 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

If we continue to see warming in the N Atlantic and cooling against South America with core of El Nino warmth drifting further west, the above is plausible.

That is a possibility but the next 4-8 weeks will provide more light on the high level uncertainty this year.

Another very important and possibly biggest factor is that modelling (not just MO) does show the El Nino warm pool shifting away from the South America coast into the winter months and this would be significant in the mean positioning of ridges and troughs throughout the mid latitudes.

Projected SSTA’s off the MO model for Dec-Feb.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

CFSv2 isn’t on the same page as MO and Jamstec with an 2006-07 or 1997-98 look.

glbT2mSeaInd3

euT2mSeaInd3

Latest CFSv2 SSTA’s for winter.

glbSSTSeaInd3

There’s a long way to go but I remain with the mixed idea with possibly a greater chance at seeing a spell of ‘significant winter weather’ but a long, cold winter I still believe is unlikely due to the solar state.

See this morning’s video for more!

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