A Potentially More Unsettled End To June

Written by Mark Vogan on June 17, 2015 in Rest of Europe, Spring 2015, Summer 2015, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Up till now, we’ve experienced a very mixed weather pattern with fight between the Azores high and Icelandic low. The cold waters of the Atlantic is most certainly suppressing the atmosphere’s ability to heat the UK lower atmosphere and with a mean ridge position to the SW of Ireland, the flow has been northwesterly.

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As we progress through the second half of June it appears the models are trying to hint at a more unsettled rather than settled solution with the weakening of the high which would allow a more pronounced westerly flow with depressions sliding west to east across Ireland and the UK. This very much fits my overall thinking for the summer. Short lived spells of warmth!

Both GFS and ECMWF are showing a more unsettled week NEXT week and beyond.

GFS

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

There’s some disagreement between the GFS ensemble and EPS control regarding the strength and dominance of the Azores high in the day 0-15. The EPS control shows enough weakening that a trough settled in day 5-10 while the GFS ensemble shows a more elongated west to east ridge south of the UK and that allow a drier, warmer medium range pattern for N Iberia, France into the Southern UK while it’s cooler and more unsettled across Northern Ireland and Scotland as well as Denmark and Scandinavia.

GFS ensemble