Tired of the wet weather? The good news is next week is looking good and probably will bring the most sustained spell of dry weather since April. Unfortunately if it’s summer warmth your looking for your going to be disappointed. The strong high building in off the Atlantic isn’t particularly warm by June standards and the air mass has been cooled from below by, yep you guessed it, a colder-than-normal Atlantic!
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We flirt with summer today and more so tomorrow as some warm, humid continental air lifts NW from France and the Low Countries but because of the presence of low pressure coming in off the Atlantic, this heat and humidity is short lived and will be interrupted by increased thunderstorm potential. Cooler air at 5-10,000ft will slide over top of the warm, moist air coming off the continent and so thunderstorm potential is pretty high and may even supress warming in areas expected to be warmest (London/E Anglia). Further north and west it’s looking much quieter over the central swath of England but there’s a front draped over west Wales up into Scotland that’s going to provide a fairly cool, cloudy and wet Friday with a stiff WSW breeze.
Quite the contrast between a rainy western/central Scotland at 12C while it may push 26C on the north side of London Friday. Saturday is a good deal cooler with highs of just 21 or 22C at best for the Southeast, cooler but brighter with showers across N England, Scotland back into N Ireland.
Potentially the warmest day of the year for the UK tomorrow.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
25.6C is the temp to beat, that was achieved not in May but in April which was the UK’s warmest April high in 4 years! The May max was only 23C.
Heat supressed south Saturday!
Settling down through the weekend…
The pattern settles down through this weekend as high pressure builds and pushes east dominating next week’s weather. Rain chances reduce sharply Sunday onwards pretty much across the board. However, due to position and west-east orientation, Southern Britain will be on the windy southern flank and so it will feel cool in the stiff easterly wind in a region where you’d expect the warmest temps. Highs as a result through much of next week will be disappointing at just 15-19C, perhaps 20 or 21C in sheltered areas. Elsewhere, expect 13-16C widely.
Rural areas by night may flirt with a frost under clear sky and where winds fall light.
Here’s a look at the ECMWF surface for the upcoming 7-10 days.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
How long does this dry spell last? The ECMWF shows the high weakening towards the close of next week, likely allowing rain bearing fronts back into Scotland.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
So, despite our weather settling and high pressure building, temps, seen by the models shall remain BELOW NORMAL through the next 10 days.
In order for us to heat up like we saw the previous two July’s, our high must build from the sub-tropics, not off a cold North Atlantic!
Wet ground and cold water is and will likely have impact on this summer and keeping us cooler than normal. GFS ensemble shows the ridge weakening towards the end of the upcoming 15 day period.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
See today’s video for more.
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