It’s a soaker of a weekend and week ahead along the Gulf Coast as warm, humid air lifts north out of the Gulf up against a stalled frontal boundary on the southern flank of a large high pressure system. That high dominates the Heartland into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. That high and it’s position to the SW means a cool, cloudy and damp Northeast.
GFS at 18z today.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
TOP IMAGE CREDIT: WeatherBug.com
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By 12z Sunday, the high builds into the Northeast settling things down with reduction of wind and return of sunshine but showers and storms continue along the Gulf Coast while one of two systems push into the Pacific Northwest. The 2nd will be next week’s big weather maker.
As a new trough knifes into the N Rockies, heavy rains break out over Texas and lifts northward while SW winds begin to draw warm air north up the East Coast. By Tuesday, according to the GFS, that front is approaching the Big Cities.
Into Wednesday and the first front slides off the EC while a more potent storm system enters the Northern playing field. This will bring heavy rain, possible backside snow and maybe record heat out ahead along with a Plains, Midwest, possibly Southeast severe weather threat.
GFS surface through the next 2-7 day period. Looks like quite the East Coast rainmaker towards the end of next week into the weekend.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
We have A LOT of rain coming in the next 7 days across the South.
This wet short term may be a sign of a wet longer term. How so? Check out how warm the Gulf has become. This coupled with a warming eastern equatorial Pacific. This tends to enhance Southern US rains.
The CFSv2 is seeing the very wet pattern across the South in the April through June period!
While it warms up in the East next week, the CFSv2 has it firmly below normal from the Plains to East Coast week 2 through 4 which takes us well into May. A cooler eastern pattern would support a wetter pattern for the south as troughs draw on warm, humid air and there’s more of that than normal over the abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, these are photos captured today of ice lingering along the Lake Superior shoreline at Marquette, MI.
Credit: NWS Marquette
More tomorrow.
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