High Pressure Builds Late Next Week But Position Is Key!

Written by Mark Vogan on February 26, 2015 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

For some time now I’ve been making mention about high pressure building later next week. This still looks likely, however, modelling is shifting the position of this high and this could significantly change the outcome of our weather and temperature profile.

Loyal subscriber, Duncan tweeted me yesterday, pointing this out. I thought I better check this out and sure enough the models are hinting at high pressure yes but with a colder outcome and possible NORTHEAST flow out of Scandinavia.

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The next 5 days sees pretty much 4 or 5 lows. Of which these have potential to bring pretty stormy weather to our shores.

If you watch this morning’s video, the GFS surface shows one system after the next piling in wind and rain. Some system’s (like Saturday’s) is less wet and windy than others (next Mon-Tue).

In today’s write-up I want to show you next week’s model solutions as you get the idea for the upcoming 5 days which the video looks at in more detail.

Notice BOTH models have a much more southerly zonal jet with the UK and much of Europe draped in chilly polar-maritime air then the high builds to our west which will help force colder air from the north southwards…

GFS for the 2nd half of next week

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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ECMWF for same period.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This would also be a cold or very cold solution for Scandinavia down through Denmark, Germany and the Low Countries.

Check out the ECMWF projected snowfall through the next 7 days.

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Here’s the latest GFS ensemble which shows this more northern MEAN ridge position with a colder outcome for the UK. Interesting times ahead… Keep right here for the latest.

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