W EUROPE: Pattern May Become LESS Changeable As We Enter March, Sign Of Early Spring Warmth?

Written by Mark Vogan on February 24, 2015 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

My drive up to Fort William was relatively uneventful until I past by the Bridge of Orchy and took the climb up into Rannoch Moor. The A82 quickly become snow covered and with the exposure to wind, blowing and some minor drifting brought the traffic flow to a crawl and even stand still over Rannoch Summit.

Source: Mark Vogan

Those frequent, blustery sleet and snow showers will continue today across higher elevations of the Northern UK but as we head towards Wednesday, we turn our winds more southwesterly with air mass origins back in the Azores. These SW winds blow AHEAD of the next frontal boundary approaching from the west and we find ourselves in the ‘warm sector’ tomorrow night which could mean temps hold at 10-12C overnight, making f0or one of the warmest night’s of the year so far.

More wind and rain into Thursday and as we head for the late week, so our winds veer back northwesterly on the backside of the low and so a colder feed of air returns.

Here’s the latest GFS surface/850 temp charts showing this up and down setup through the next few days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Warm 850s tomorrow night…

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

2m temps tom night.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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This ‘warm tongue’ quickly pushes through during Thursday and we’re back in the colder W and eventually NW flow later in the day into Friday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

A Sign Of Early Spring Warmth?

In recent days, I’ve touched on prospects of more settled weather as we head into March. There’s consistency as well as strong cross model agreement that ridging builds over the UK and West Europe in the 7-16 day period with increased likelihood of a mild and fairly settled open to March. Cool nights for sure under clear sky and light wind but days could warm up substantially.

EPS Control

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS operational

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

While there are differences, there’s certainly some similarities showing between this year and March 2012. Strong positive NAO as we head for March with an El Nino in the central Pacific. March 2012 was an extreme event with all-time record warmth and I’m not expecting that but going by the models, we have some decent ridging on the way which could start warming our surrounding water. If this was to happen, let’s watch for a dry March then a shift to wetter come April. Warm surrounding waters plus El Nino signals WET! It’s all to play for at this time…

See video for the discussion.

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