Tonight looks likely to be the coldest of this current spell for the UK as high pressure becomes established overhead. Daytime max’s will struggle to get much above freezing from Birmingham northward. Where there’s snow cover, it will stay in the 0 to -2C range setting the stage for the coldest night of the winter and of 2014.

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Over the next 48 hours the strong high builds into Europe which means milder air will begin to push back into Ireland and eventually the UK but eastern parts of the UK will remain cold as it will remain under the influence of the cold high for longest but WSW winds pick up in the W and NW during Tuesday.

This was the scene in a snowy Rotterdam this morning. Looking cold under those blue skies… colder still in coming nights there as the high slides overhead!

Snow cover really makes a difference in maximising radiational cooling overnight and lows over the UK snowfields should push -12C, possibly nearer -18C over snowy inland parts of the Netherlands and Belgium tonight.

Snow cover across Europe according to the latest ECMWF.

Tomorrow morning lows according to the ECMWF

As we approach New Year we’re back in the mild WSW Atlantic flow with temps back to 8-12C across the board with all the cold pushed into central and southeast Europe.

However, both GFS and ECMWF show the return of the pattern we got around Christmas with the return of a cold NW flow with snow showers. I think there’s a battle this winter between Atlantic and arctic and until that NAO goes negative which it’s stubbornly holding positive due to strat warming (which is happening) in the wrong place!

Check out the GFS surface showing the return of mild but then flip to cold NW’erly come 2nd, 3rd of January.

Painstaking Wait Be Coming To An End?

The strat warming has been ongoing since October but the vortex has been resilient, fighting against the warming and stopping wave 2 activity from forcing the collapse necessary to spark an SSWE. The PV has held together, refused to split or collapse. This along with warming on the opposite side of the pole from Europe has held back the developed of a true -NAO which sends a polar trough into Europe. Some reputable long range forecasts argue that the NAO doesn’t truly come into play until late winter. Perhaps that will be the case this year.

Modelling actually shows that the vortex has strengthened and reorganised in the last couple of weeks but there’s some interesting cross model agreement that there’s a split coming. Check out the latest GFS forecast at 10mb through the next 240h.

The warmth cuts through the PV causing a split and sends one piece into North America and the other into the Ural mountains but the warmth over Greenland is catching my attention. This would suggest a Greenland block and therefore colder pattern.

To summarise. The next 2 weeks looks to see the Atlantic/cold battle continue but by mid-January onwards, IF the above happens, I think we may be looking at some significant winter weather say beyond the 20th. Until then, don’t fret, we may get a taste of snow along with cold but there’s plenty of mild in between. This was in my forecast! We’ve had the first cold spell between Christmas and New Year as predicted so that box in my seasonal outlook can be ticked off.

See video for discussion.

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