No change in overall autumn ideas. Warm October and November with turn to much wetter conditions into November.
The new Jamstec is out and it interestingly expands cold again over Western Europe including all of the UK and Ireland.
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The El Nino is slowly coming on and will be present come winter. For us seeing a colder than normal winter, we WANT TO SEE an El Nino which is central Pacific based like we had back in 2009-10.
No strong El Nino but enough of one which could trigger an 09-10 style winter for us.
Check out the positioning of the warm pool over the central Pacific and classic North Atlantic tripole (warm-cold-warm) which supports a Greenland/N Atlantic blocking high.
Dec 3, 2009
Jan 4, 2010
Both Jamstec and CFSv2 have the same type of El Nino and warm pool positioning as back in Dec 2009 for the upcoming winter.
CFSv2 hasn’t shifted from it’s ridge/zonal 200mb heights over the UK during October-November to negative into winter. However, it’s now shifting over North America, showing more of a positive over negative connection from North America to Europe. The more classic negative NAO winter and cold for both sides of the Atlantic!
See video for discussion.
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