Back at the close of July into the start of August, Ex-Hurricane Bertha brought an end to summer over the UK following the largely warm, dry June-July pattern. Following Bertha’s strong wind and rain, a trough become dominant over the UK producing the coolest August since 1993. Then we saw the arrival of Ex Hurricane Christobal on Iceland. What this system did was bring back the ridge and ever since it’s been warmer and drier than normal.

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This week will see ‘air being let out of the tire slowly’ rather than a knife bursting it altogether. By that I mean the ridge won’t collapse but merely weaken as the core moves to a new position over Scandinavia. What this means is that the low continuously spinning off Iberia, ‘should’ bring a ‘showery, cooler’ influence to the UK early and mid week. Easterly winds on the southern periphery of the ridge will bring increased showers and even longer spells of rain to Northern parts of the UK tonight through tomorrow.

Even by late this week, temperatures warm considerably with highs rebounding towards the UPPER 20s as soon as Thursday over Southeast England, low 20s for Scotland and NI.

You have to look WAY south, some 2-3,000 miles to find Edouard.

Here it is on the HNC map.

Here’s the current visible satellite view. Still officially a tropical storm, my guess is this thing will be upgraded to a hurricane anytime. Note the eye now formed!

NHC has this becoming a major hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 24.0N  49.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  15/0600Z 26.2N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  15/1800Z 27.5N  55.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  16/0600Z 28.9N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  17/0600Z 33.0N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 42.0N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Thanks to a trough deepening over eastern Canada and the sprawling low off Iberia, Edouard has nowhere really to go other than NNE but it appears to deepen, possibly to major status before weakening over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

The system’s heat transfer north into temperate or more northerly latitudes have influence on pressure and by driving tropical heat into a region of higher pressure. This should act as a pump, boosting already stronger than normal heights.

If BOTH ECMWF and GFS are correct then the weakening of the ridge this week is temporary and the influence of Edouard should be positive if you like the current warm, dry pattern. The models show the ridge rebuilding in the 5-10 day period and in fact heights over the UK may in fact be stronger than what we’ve seen already.

Given what we’ve seen and what’s likely ahead, this September may wind up one of the driest in quite some time.

Here’s the ECMWF surface Atlantic view which shows the track and strengthening of Edouard over the open ocean. Note the strengthening of the ridge towards 144 and 168 hours to it’s north.

Here’s that ridge REBUILDING in response to Edouard lifting north.

ECMWF 500mb height anomaly charts show the ridge building nicely.

Hope you got a chance to check out Friday and Saturday’s posts which look at the longer term…

See today’s video for discussion.

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