Unfortunately I was unable to post on Arthur yesterday. Was on the road and didn’t get home till 4.30am this morning. Signal in the Scottish Highlands wasn’t strong enough for my phone never mind laptop. Managed to grab a couple of hours sleep, albeit broken since I’ve a 6 month old, haha but anyway, within the last hour Arthur has officially been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane roughly 140 miles SSE of Charleston, SC.

If you’ve been following Arthur’s progress over the past 24 hours you’ll know the system has been gradually gaining strength and organisation over the bathtub warm waters off the South Atlantic coast. This system has a pressure now down at 985mb and continues to fall with max sustained winds now at 75 mph. This system will continue strengthening up until a landfall somewhere over southern coastal areas of North Carolina, posing a very serious threat to the particularly venerable Outer Banks.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

NHC track

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Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warnings

Exact intensity at landfall is still unknown but given it’s steady and continued strengthening within a favourable ocean and atmospheric environment, folks living up and down the NC coast may well be dealing with a strong CATEGORY 2 system with sustained winds over 105 mph.

50 knot wind probability

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
of the period.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
Prediction Center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 31.3N  79.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 32.5N  78.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 34.7N  76.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 37.5N  72.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 40.9N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 47.5N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  07/0600Z 54.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/0600Z 60.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

It’s not just North Carolina that will feel the effects of Arthur but right up the East Coast. Bad timing given Arthur impacts right on the 4th of July festivities. Beaches are likely to be a no go with dangerous rip currents, pounding waves as well as wet, windy conditions on top.

QPF rainfall through the next 72 hrs.

ECMWF shows a dangerous Cat 2 or 3 over Cape Hatteras at 12z Friday. Winds may gust to 120 mph which would cause all sorts of headaches, especially when there’s only one road on and off the Outer Banks.

The combination of the trough swinging into the East and Arthur means heavy rains up and down the coast through the next 48 hours.

Heat is the other ‘hot’ topic over the US right now unless you live in North-Central areas and your beneath the trough!

Highs Yesterday

More later!

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Tags: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014, hurricane, Hurricane Arthur