Current visible satellite shows the curl of cloud associated with an unusually deep low over Iceland. This system’s associated front is now throwing clouds over Scotland as the breakdown of the ridge, sunshine and warmth has begun.
Source/Credit: Icelandic Met Office
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Rain is on the way as well as a strengthening wind which shall touch gale-force along exposed coasts and hills later today.
GFS surface at 18z today.
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While wind and rain gradually descends over the Northern UK and Ireland, sunshine remains further south and with an increasing SW flow driving warmth out of the Azores, rather than cooling, southern England will warm further today, tomorrow and peaking Friday but everyone cools down and turns showery (longer spells of rain for some) and windy through the weekend.
Today’s highs.
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Tomorrow’s highs.
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Friday’s highs.
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GFS surface by 00z Saturday.
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By 00z Sunday, the low is spinning just off the Scottish West Coast with the front pushing through N France, Belg, Neth and Denmark where it cools and turns wet and windy.
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Models are in good agreement about an unsettled start to next week with low pressure overhead but it will be of a ‘sunshine and showers’ nature. By no means a washout!
The good news is, high pressure (1032mb) still looks likely to rebuild back into Ireland and the UK from midweek on.
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Here’s the GFS 500mb height anomaly by 192 hours or 00z Thursday.
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We have Tropical Storm and soon to become Hurricane Arthur off Florida which will threaten North Carolina in the coming days. Check out the long range model track spread which goes out to 384 hours.
Large consensus takes this system towards Greenland and Iceland with an outlier taking it to Scotland. This system MAY play a role in Western Europe weather in the 10-15 day time frame.
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No video today but will have one again in the morning.
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