While there’s a lot of warm, humid air covering the European continent including the UK this weekend, we have a rather significant ATLANTIC influence through the upcoming 10 days.
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The models are showing TWO significant lows which will not only bring wet, windy conditions to the western side of the continent but may bring a resurge of major heat.
Low no. 1 can be seen peeling off Greenland and with quite cold air associated and driving into a warm, humid environment as it pushes towards Iberia, the system may wind into a large circulation bringing a band of heavy rain to western Iberia, France and the UK but heat will also be a factor in the west as air gets lifted from Africa up into the UK.
Here are the latest ECMWF surface charts showing the low drawing away from Greenland and developing off Ireland through the course of this week. As that system deepens over the Atlantic, so ridging further east intensifies with Middle East heat pushing up through Ukraine into Russia, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
24 hrs
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48 hrs
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72 hrs
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96 hrs
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120 hrs
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156 hrs
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Here’s the 500mb height anomalies at 156 depicting the big negative off SW Ireland verses the strong positive centred over the Baltic Sea but spans the majority of mainland Europe, supporting above normal temps.
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2 metre temps for 156 hrs.
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2-metre temp anomalies at 156 hrs.
System number 2 pushes in early the following week and this may bring more wind as well as heavy rain and warm, humid air from the warmer than normal Med Sea.
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It remains warmer, drier than normal over central, eastern and northern Europe with stronger than normal heights over areas that have seen the least rain since Jan 1.
As for the UK, we too will be warmer than normal BUT we will see spells of heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms in between bright and sunny days.
GFS Day 1-8 surface meteogram for Amsterdam shows the warming trend through this week as the offshore low deepens, draws warmth and humidity north from Africa, across the Med into the Low Countries.
Warming trend for Moscow too. Could see 32C or 90F.
Be sure to watch today’s video!
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