NAO Supports Building Ridge, Warmth Over Western Europe Next Week

Written by on May 8, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The latest GFS ensemble supports both a positive NAO along with building heights from the Azores up over the UK, Low Countries and even Scandinavia.

nao_sprd2

The models will shift a little west and east as to exactly where the ridge core will be positioned next week. A lot will depend upon how strong and how far east any Atlantic trough is positioned.

GFS 500mb height anomaly for this Saturday.

gefs-hgt--europe-60-A-500hgtanom_white

Next Friday.

gefs-hgt--europe-192-A-500hgtanom_white

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Here’s the latest GFS sea level pressure charts from the low this weekend to the soaring pressures of mid and late next week.

Watch as the Azores high migrates northeastward with the core appearing to stay east of the UK, more on the Belgium and Dutch side of the North Sea, different to yesterday but like I say, the models will fluctuate with exact positioning. Even with a further east ridge, this setup would have the boundary separating high from low a touch close to the UK’s western door but would still support a warm SSW air flow.

60 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

204 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice the boundary hanging over Ireland and Scotland at 168 hrs. It’s far too far out to make a forecast on this but the overall idea is that we’re going to see a substantial ridge building northward over Western Europe mid to late next week after a wet, windy and cool weekend coming up.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS Meteogram through the next 8 days…

DUBLIN

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5303-577meteogram_sfc

AMSTERDAM

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5245718meteogram_sfc

OSLO

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us59281065meteogram_sfc

Next Europe video will be available once again tomorrow morning at 9.15am.

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