Sub-990mb Low Over UK This Saturday To 1032mb High Next Saturday?

Written by on May 7, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s very much a tail of two halves in the pattern between Northwest and Southwest Europe. The slightly negative but flat NAO supports a chilly, active, westerly air flow from Ireland to Scandinavia with frequent lows bringing spells of enhanced ‘unsettled’ weather. In stark contrast however, Spain, Portugal and most of the Mediterranean is enjoying the best weather of the year so far with warm to even hot sunshine.

Check out this breath taking view looking across the Strait of Gibraltar yesterday with Morocco visible in the distance. Photo courtesy of Steph Ball.

Courtesy/Credit: Stephanie Ball (@MeteoGib)

Courtesy/Credit: Stephanie Ball (@MeteoGib)

Temperatures under bright, cloud free skies are in the 25-35C range and will be through the rest of this week. In stark contrast, the below webcam image, captured at one of Sweden’s ski resorts shows a very wintry scene this morning. A trough is driving unseasonably chilly air south out of the arctic and with low pressure spinning over the Baltic Sea, snow has been falling and accumulating.

Source: webbkameror.se

Source: webbkameror.se

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Here’s another view from another resort.

Source: webbkameror.se

Source: webbkameror.se

The cool, blustery and often showery weather streaming in from the Atlantic, impacting Ireland, the UK and much of western and northern mainland Europe will continue through the rest of the workweek with a ‘peaking’ of this pattern this weekend as a pretty significant low crosses over the UK. We can expect some pretty wet, windy and cooler than normal conditions.

Once that low passes, a chilly northwesterly flow kicks in but there does appear to be hints of better weather later next week. STILL EARLY TO BE SURE THOUGH!

Hints Of A Warmer, More Settled Spell Late Next Week/Weekend?

While we’re currently under the gun of low pressure, especially this upcoming weekend, I have however been hinting at better weather returning. The current NAO status perfectly reflects the current pattern with a southerly tracking, zonal jet which keeps the UK in the firing line (slightly negative NAO) but models point to the NAO returning to positive territory later next week and this supports building heights over Europe.

Both operational and ensembles are seeing this return to positive in the NAO and the return of ridging back into the UK.

Before we get to potentially better weather, here’s the 500mb height anomalies through the upcoming 7 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the deep negative over the UK this weekend off the ECMWF….

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Surface chart for the same period.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

That’s this upcoming Saturday (above), here’s NEXT SATURDAY according to the current run of the ECMWF 500mb height anomalies (240 hours).

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF Surface at 240 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

240 hour GFS operational isn’t on the same page.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

However, check out the GFS ensemble for the same period.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Next Europe video will be available tomorrow morning at 9.15am, stay tuned!

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